Recently, in the past six months, there has been an issue increasingly resembling an unavoidable black swan—the U.S. debt.

Let's look at the numbers first. The U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP has soared to 120%, a level last seen during World War II. Even more concerning is that this figure is expected to continue rising over the next 30 years, with no signs of easing.

**Why is this year particularly dangerous?** Because four major events in 2025 have transformed the U.S. debt problem from "terrifying but still controllable" to "completely out of control":

First, the reform forces outside the system (D.O.G.E. Government Efficiency Department) finally clashed with the bureaucratic system. The massive political利益链条 is not so easy to break. Second, tax cuts continue to bleed the system, expanding the fiscal deficit even further. Third, political polarization intensifies, leaving no united force to address the issue. Fourth, global central banks are de-dollarizing—76% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves and reduce their U.S. debt holdings. This means the demand side for U.S. debt is disintegrating.

**What is the most critical change?** The "correction mechanism" in the system has died.

In 2008 and 2020, the U.S. borrowed heavily to rescue the economy, only to find that—no one really punished them. Since there are no consequences, why restrain themselves? This mindset has become a consensus, causing any constraints to vanish.

What will happen next? In the long term, there are three bad news points:

1. Long-term bond yields will continue to rise. Institutions and central banks are dumping U.S. debt, and the market cannot get enough supply, so interest rates can only go up. 2. Inflation expectations will be re-priced. The government has a clear motive—to dilute debt through high inflation, which will fundamentally change investors' expectations of future prices. 3. When the next crisis hits, the government will have no bullets left. Debt has already hit the ceiling, with no fiscal space to stimulate, making the crisis longer and more painful.

**So what to do?** No need for panic fleeing, but asset allocation must be adjusted.

Gold is the first choice—the most straightforward hedge. Bitcoin is also worth holding. If you can withstand volatility, high-quality AI leading stocks are even more worth paying attention to, as these assets have real technological barriers and can survive economic cycles. The key is to find those "antifragile" assets—assets that become more valuable as the economy becomes more chaotic.

The core logic ultimately boils down to: the U.S. debt crisis is no longer a question of "whether it will happen," but "how it will end." Due to the failure of the political system, debt out of control is now unavoidable. The worst-case scenario may require experiencing a deep adjustment similar to the stagflation of the 1970s to force genuine reform. The way out for ordinary investors is simple—prepare a defensive lineup in advance and survive in an era of high interest rates and high volatility.