#比特币价格走势 Fidelity's outlook report's core logic is worth noting—the game theory assumptions behind national-level Bitcoin reserves. If more sovereign countries follow suit and purchase, then the supply and demand dynamics will indeed create upward pressure, and the scale of this incremental demand is the key factor.

But the critical detail here is: the current price trend of Bitcoin could either be the start of a bear market or just a correction within a bull market. The four-year cycle hasn't disappeared because the emotions of fear and greed are still circulating in the market. This means we need to monitor several specific signals—such as the net inflow of institutional funds, the progress of national reserve purchases, and the holding status at key price support levels.

Additionally, be aware of risk warnings: the increased demand driven by corporate and national purchases is certainly bullish, but once a bear market is confirmed, the selling pressure on these holdings could also significantly amplify. Traditional asset management entering the market is indeed a new variable, but it currently appears to be in the early stages, and the ceiling for incremental capital is still uncertain.

Short-term investors should exercise caution; the long-term holding framework is in place, but validation will take time.