Recently, the US stock market has been frequently opening lower, and many people are asking whether this will drag down the crypto market. The answer is, it indeed has an impact, but it's not that simple.

First is **sentiment transmission**. When US stocks open lower, investors' risk appetite decreases, and high-risk assets like Bitcoin are more likely to be sold off. Data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq can reach over 80% during certain periods, and in 2022, it maintained a high correlation almost throughout the year. A typical example is December 20, 2022 — although US stocks rebounded and turned positive, the crypto market fell due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve combined with a $680 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, causing Bitcoin to drop from a high of $108,365 to $92,520, a decline of over 5%.

Next is **capital flow**. US stock market declines often attract funds into safe assets like government bonds, especially amid expectations of interest rate hikes or dollar appreciation. But there's an interesting reverse logic — if the decline is caused by geopolitical factors like trade friction, it might actually lead to capital fleeing into "safe haven" assets like Bitcoin. This was observed at the end of April 2025, when US stocks plummeted but Bitcoin rose by 3.16%, indicating that its safe-haven properties can still be effective at certain times.

Finally, there's the **macro environment**. If the decline in US stocks is due to the Federal Reserve tightening policy or disappointing economic data, the crypto market usually comes under pressure. In a high-interest-rate environment, liquidity is drained, which is unfavorable for all risk assets. So rather than saying US stocks influence the crypto market directly, it's more accurate to say they are both driven by the same macro factors — only with different degrees of volatility and time lag.