Why have I been able to stay in the market all these years? Honestly, it's not because I'm particularly smart or have mastered some complex black technology. Just two words—simplicity.



When analyzing the market, don’t get dizzy from all kinds of indicators. No matter how much the market twists and turns, you ultimately can't escape four things: trend, inertia, reversion, and cycle. Grasp these four, and you can basically understand the overall picture.

How to do it? My trading framework is four steps. It’s nothing fancy when explained, but it really works.

**Step 1: One line determines the outcome**

I only watch one long-term moving average. Don’t clutter yourself with too many indicators; the more, the messier. When the price is above the moving average, think about going long; when it drops below, consider shorting. It’s that simple. Don’t try to predict what will happen; just follow the trend. Those who try to predict usually end up losing the most—that’s a painful lesson.

**Step 2: Wait for it to turn back before going up**

No matter how fierce the market is, it won’t go straight up forever; it needs to breathe and retrace. During these pullbacks, I patiently wait for the price to approach the moving average. Once it deviates to a suitable level, I enter cautiously. Set your stop-loss at a clearly defined low point ahead, so even if you’re wrong, the loss isn’t much. Use small capital to test and learn, and in return, you get the chance for the trend to continue. It’s worth it.

**Step 3: Hold on to profit**

What’s the most important thing when you’ve opened a position? It’s to hold your nerve and not move recklessly. This tests your mindset. As long as the trend hasn’t reversed and the pullback hasn’t hit your stop-loss, you must hold on. Many people get wiped out here—they make some profit and then want to run, afraid of losing gains. Actually, profits come from time and market inertia, not from your frequent tinkering. Over-trading just keeps creating pitfalls for yourself.

**Step 4: Let money make money**

After each profit, I set aside a portion of the gains as the principal for the next trade. The benefit is that you keep trading with profits, not repeatedly using your initial capital. It sounds a bit like compound interest, but really, it’s about letting the money you’ve earned keep working. The core logic of profitability is this—repeatedly doing the right things, and the numbers will go up.

**Step 5: Exit when you hear the signal**

When should you close a position? When the price returns near the moving average and you feel the momentum is weakening. Don’t be tempted by the last few points; exit decisively. Those who chase the final gains often end up giving back everything they earned earlier. I’d rather exit a step early than get caught at the last moment.

Honestly, this approach isn’t sexy at all, and it doesn’t look complicated. But it’s this simple logic that keeps me clear about what I’m doing in most market conditions. No need to chase perfection, no need to bottom-fish or top-take. Just follow your own rhythm and repeatedly do the right actions. Making money has never depended on one or two big swings, but on continuous correct decisions.
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VitaliksTwinvip
· 4h ago
Basically, greed kills people. Moving averages dominate everything; it's all just this套路.
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MEVHuntervip
· 4h ago
nah, single MA gaming is child's play... real alpha's in the mempool tho
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