#比特币周期规律 Fidelity's report left me a bit conflicted. On one hand, it suggests that countries might gradually include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, which logically would push prices higher. On the other hand, it mentions that these institutions might be forced to sell during a bear market. Basically, when prices go up, everyone rises together; when they fall, everyone might fall together.

The most interesting part is the view on the four-year cycle — it hasn't completely disappeared because human nature's fear and greed are still there. This is quite honest; it means history might repeat itself or it might not, and we'll only see clearly by 2026. Those looking to make quick money in the short term should be cautious, while long-term holders can continue to play, especially since traditional capital is just beginning to flow in. It feels like the story of Bitcoin has shifted from institutional collective action to national-level demand, and the landscape has indeed changed.