Entering the institutional maturity stage! Ark Invest: Bitcoin will reach a maximum of $1.5 million by 2030

In the view of Ark Invest, the key to Bitcoin’s next phase of market movement is no longer whether the market “believes in” this asset, but rather how much investors “allocate” and “through which channels they hold” it. Ark Digital Asset Research Trading Analyst David Puell pointed out that with the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF and the rise of Digital Asset Trusts (DAT), Bitcoin has officially entered the institutional maturity stage. David Puell stated that during past bull and bear cycles, many infrastructures were still under construction, but now the focus has shifted from “whether to invest in Bitcoin” to “how much Bitcoin to invest and through which channels.” Since the US Bitcoin spot ETF was approved for listing in early 2024, it has quickly become one of the most critical capital inflows in the cryptocurrency market. In just 18 months, the overall net inflow has exceeded $50 billion, indicating that institutional and compliant funds are entering on a large scale. Among them, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have absorbed most of the funds, not only increasing market liquidity but also further reducing circulating supply. Some estimates suggest that these ETFs collectively hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins. David Puell pointed out that ETFs and corporate reserve strategies have collectively absorbed about 12% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin, far exceeding market expectations, and have become the main driving force of price trends in 2025, with their influence potentially extending into 2026. Puell also observed that the main market theme in 2025 will be a confrontation between two forces: on one side, the “ancient whales” holding Bitcoin for over 10 years cashing out at highs; on the other side, institutional funds aggressively accumulating through ETFs and DAT companies. Despite the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, Ark Invest remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. The company’s valuation model predicts that by 2030, the target price of Bitcoin will be around $300,000 in a conservative scenario; approximately $710,000 in a base scenario; and up to $1,500,000 in the most optimistic scenario. Puell added, “Digital gold” (store of value) is the core momentum in conservative and base scenarios, while the true explosive potential comes from the full entry of institutional funds. Additionally, Bitcoin volatility is showing signs of structural change. Puell found that Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a historic low, with risk-adjusted returns significantly improving. He said: “Past bull markets have seen corrections of 30% to 50%, but since the bottom in 2022, the largest drawdown has been only about 36%.” Puell believes this is due to the emergence of more mature investors who do not blindly chase prices during rapid surges but instead choose to allocate during pullbacks, which helps reduce market volatility and shorten recovery periods. He also pointed out that regulatory clarity brought by the Trump administration and strong support from local governments like Texas for the cryptocurrency industry are long-term structural positive factors. Even if the US’s establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve does not directly create new demand, it will help shape a more stable holding structure.