#周末行情分析

｜Finding Certainty Opportunities in Volatility

The current market has indeed entered a delicate phase. As short-term selling pressure gradually dissipates, the main index shows a trend of easing between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, mainstream coins are generally consolidating with reduced volume near key support levels, and market sentiment has shifted from panic to caution. This is often an important signal before a trend reversal.

I lean towards the view that “oscillation breeds short-term rebounds.” There are mainly two reasons: First, the technical repair needs after continuous declines are accumulating, and some mainstream coins' daily indicators have entered oversold territory; Second, the market lacks new significant negative news, and panic selling has subsided, with some funds beginning to cautiously re-enter positions. However, the sustainability and height of the rebound mainly depend on whether a leading coin with increased volume can break through—rebound without volume is often fragile.

This weekend, I will focus on two directions:

1. Mainstream Coins: Keep a Close Eye on ETH
ETH has recently shown relatively steady performance. Against the backdrop of the market digesting expectations of the Cancun upgrade, its resilience has become evident. The key observation is whether it can establish effective support in the $2150-$2200 range, and whether on-chain data (such as large holder position changes, exchange net inflows) show positive signals. If ETH can lead the way with volume and stabilize above $2250, it may boost market sentiment. Operationally, I plan to enter gradually with small positions after confirming support is solid, with stop-loss set below key support levels.

2. Altcoins: Focus on “The Strong Get Stronger” Sector Rotation
Although the market has been generally sluggish recently, some sectors (such as AI, DeFi, Meme) still see recurring capital activity. I will focus on altcoins with strong resilience, high community engagement, and continuous fundamental progress. For example, certain leaders in the AI sector tend to rebound faster if the overall market stabilizes. However, I will strictly control altcoin positions, avoid chasing highs, and only consider light positions when key moving averages are tested on dips.

Overall Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic, Position Control is Key
My core approach this weekend is “observe more, act less, and strike precisely.” During oscillation periods, frequent trading and emotional decisions are most detrimental. I will keep total positions at a relatively low level (no more than 30%), maintaining enough ammunition to wait for clearer signals.

If a volume-driven rebound occurs, I will prioritize adding to existing mainstream coin holdings; if the market continues to decline, I will patiently wait for panic to subside before gradually deploying into promising targets. In any case, strict stop-loss discipline is essential—protecting capital is more important than chasing profits when the trend is unclear.

The market always moves through fluctuations. The weekend’s行情 may not determine the trend, but it is a window to observe capital sentiment and test the strength of targets. Stay patient, stay alert, and we can all find our rhythm amid volatility.