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⚠️ Japanese government bond yields surge to new historical highs, closely mirroring the trend of gold—
Currently, Japan is experiencing a "high valuation" trading environment, characterized by aggressive fiscal policies combined with limited interest rate hikes, leading to a rise in stock prices and a simultaneous decline in bonds and currency.
The Japanese government is likely already at the point of fiscal exhaustion, repaying old debts borrowed ten or twenty years ago. If interest rates rise to just 5%, all fiscal revenue would be used solely for debt repayment!
Honestly, U.S. debt is not as risky as Japanese debt. Japanese debt might enter a vicious cycle—
1. Aggressive fiscal policies lead to debt risk concerns
2. Risk concerns push up government bond yields
3. Rising yields increase the difficulty of Bank of Japan's decision-making
4. Weakening BOJ functions heighten inflation expectations
5. Elevated inflation expectations further raise government bond yields
6. Rising yields again amplify debt risks
It seems the exchange rate still needs to fall—could we be fast-forwarding to the point where the country hits the kill switch?