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How significant is the impact on the economy if China's real estate collapses?
I tend to trust Ren Zhiqiang's data estimates,
because he is a frontline real estate businessman.
For the Chinese "leeks" in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, if they spend 5 million yuan on a house, over 90% of that income comes from upstream and downstream government revenue. These revenues, as one-time taxes, are permanently absorbed by the government.
In the patent I applied for in 2012, the construction and installation cost of a 38-story fully decorated affordable housing is about 1,300 yuan per square meter, while at that time, the housing price in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, was already around 20,000 yuan.
A collapse in housing prices would lead to a collapse in China's economy; this is simply common sense.
Therefore, the government must show sincerity; otherwise, housing prices will definitely collapse to the point where not even bones remain.
The so-called sincerity means immediately granting permanent private ownership of residential land.