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Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair will end in May 2026 (his term as a board member runs until January 2028, and he may choose to remain as a board member but not serve as Chair).
Trump is expected to announce his nominee within the next few days to a week (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday "we might hear news in about a week"), followed by Senate confirmation.
Summary:
Most likely: Rick Rieder (BlackRock) — currently the highest market odds, with Trump publicly expressing positive views, making him the strongest contender in the short term.
Second favorite: Kevin Warsh — if Trump wants to choose a "former Fed official + conservative" combination, Warsh remains a strong candidate.
Announcement timing: Very likely between late January and early February (possibly even before or around this week's FOMC meeting), to complete the confirmation process before May.