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When government shutdowns become the norm, what is the market pricing in?
An easily overlooked point is:
The market's reaction to "government shutdowns" is gradually dulling but has not disappeared.
What does this indicate?
It shows that shutdowns themselves are now viewed by the market as "normal risk," but each specific situation still requires re-pricing.
In the current environment, the background factors that compound shutdowns are more numerous:
* High debt levels
* Long-term high interest rates
* Limited fiscal space
These factors make the market more sensitive to any signals of "policy failure."
In other words, a shutdown may not be the trigger, but it could be the button for a concentrated emotional release.
So, rather than obsessing over whether a shutdown will really happen, it's more practical to ask yourself:
If emotions continue to worsen, can my positions withstand it?
Those who survive such phases are often not the smartest, but the most patient.
The market will repeatedly test this point. #美政府停摆危机 #