Corn Futures Edge Lower as January Trading Winds Down

Corn futures are closing out the final trading week of January with modest losses, as market participants digest a mixed bag of export demand signals and domestic supply updates. The weakness follows a session where nearby contracts declined 2 to 3 cents on Friday morning, though Thursday had shown relative strength with fractional to 2-cent advances across the complex.

Contract-by-Contract Performance Reveals Mixed Signals

The front-month March contract settled Thursday at $4.30 3/4, marking a 3/4 cent gain, though it has since retreated to show a 2 1/2 cent decline as traders adjust positioning. May corn futures closed at $4.39, up 1 cent on Thursday but now down 2 1/2 cents, while July contracts finished at $4.45 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents Thursday before pulling back 2 3/4 cents on the current session.

Open interest adjustments tell part of the story—Thursday’s trading saw preliminary open interest decline by 5,812 contracts, primarily concentrated in the March and July delivery months. This repositioning ahead of the month-end suggests participants are managing exposure cautiously.

Cash Markets Hold Firmer Than Futures

The spot corn market has shown relative resilience compared to the weakness in the futures pits. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price advanced 1 3/4 cents to reach $3.95 1/4 per bushel, suggesting that elevator bids remain competitive despite the futures contract pressure. This divergence between futures and cash typically indicates underlying demand at the producer level.

Export Activity Remains Robust Despite Weekly Slowdown

Weekly export sales data released Thursday documented 1.649 million metric tons (MMT) of corn sales in the week ending January 22. While this represented a pullback from the previous week’s pace, the year-over-year comparison remained compelling—the reported volume was 21.4% above the same week in 2025, demonstrating sustained international appetite.

Geographic demand patterns show diversification across multiple regions. Japan emerged as the largest buyer with 365,100 metric tons, Mexico followed with 350,800 MT, and Colombia rounded out the top three destinations with 339,500 MT. This distribution suggests steady demand from multiple trading partners rather than concentration in a single market.

Census Data Highlights November’s Record Trade Month

Monthly trade statistics from the Census Bureau revealed a total of 7.305 MMT (287.6 million bushels) of corn shipped during November—the second-largest monthly total on record and the largest volume since April 2025. This performance underscores the strength of export momentum heading into the final quarter of the year.

Energy-related corn exports painted a particularly bullish picture. Ethanol exports hit a record 211.33 million gallons for November, marking the second-largest monthly total for any month on record. This achievement reflects both strong international demand for the fuel additive and supportive domestic crush margins. By contrast, distillers exports declined to 933,557 MT from year-ago levels, suggesting some shift in the product mix as ethanol captured a larger share of co-product shipments.

What the Data Signals for Corn Futures Traders

The interplay between persistent international demand, record ethanol export volumes, and domestic cash market strength suggests an underlying constructive backdrop for corn futures despite current session weakness. The data validates that global customers view U.S. corn supplies as competitively priced and reliably available, which should provide price floors as traders reassess positioning into early February.