Brothers, the big move is here

Macro Outlook for Next Week: Non-Farm CPI combined with US-Iran negotiations, Japan’s general election, and the crypto market will face the ultimate test

On February 7th, this week, the crypto market accelerated its decline. Although it experienced a brief rebound on Friday, fragile market sentiment will continue to be tested next week. Key macro events and data scheduled for next week include US-Iran negotiations, Japan’s general election, US non-farm payrolls, CPI, and more. The specific preview is as follows:

Macro Data and Federal Reserve Officials’ Speeches:

Tuesday 00:00, US January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;

Tuesday 02:30, Federal Reserve Board Member Waller speaks on digital assets;

Tuesday 04:15, FOMC voter for 2027 and Atlanta Fed President Bostic discusses monetary policy and economic outlook;

Tuesday 21:30, US December Retail Sales MoM, US Q4 Labor Cost Index QoQ, US December Import Price Index MoM;

Wednesday 01:00, FOMC voter for 2026 and Cleveland Fed President Harker speaks on “Banking and Economic Outlook”;

Wednesday 02:00, FOMC voter for 2026 and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks;

Wednesday 21:30, US January Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings YoY/MoM, US 2025 Non-Farm Employment Benchmark Final (Unadjusted);

Thursday 15:00, UK Q4 GDP Annualized, UK December 3-Month GDP MoM, UK December Manufacturing/Industrial Output MoM, UK December Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance;

Friday 08:00, FOMC voter for 2026 and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers welcoming remarks at an event, Federal Reserve Board Member Mester attends by invitation;

Friday 21:30, US January Unadjusted CPI YoY, US January Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM, US January Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM, US January Unadjusted Core CPI YoY;

US-Iran Negotiations:

On February 6th local time, Trump stated that the US and Iran had “very good talks,” and that Iran is “very eager” to reach an agreement. He said the US will negotiate with Iran again next week. He reiterated that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons. Trump also authorized his government to impose tariffs on countries engaged in trade with Iran, but no new tariffs have been immediately implemented.

Japan’s General Election:

Sanae Takaichi announced that Japan will hold a general election on February 8th. The election results may signal a meaningful shift towards more expansionary fiscal policies in Japan, including tax cuts and increased government spending, at a time when Japan already has one of the heaviest public debt burdens in the world. Market analysts suggest that a more expansionist policy stance could put pressure on Japanese government bonds, weaken the yen, and complicate the Bank of Japan’s efforts to normalize monetary policy.