#比特币反弹 Bitcoin Rebound: Finding Certainty Amidst Volatility

#比特币反弹 #BTC

After reclaiming the $71,000 level, I believe this rebound is likely to continue, but it will inevitably be accompanied by sharp secondary pullbacks.

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin's recent rise is clearly driven by macro capital flows. The 2.25% increase over 24 hours indicates a return of bullish momentum. However, $71,000 is a key psychological threshold. Previously, a large amount of trapped and profit-taking positions accumulated at this level. Once the price continues to advance, the release of these positions could exert significant selling pressure. Therefore, in the short term, a "sideways upward" movement is more likely than a one-sided surge.

Regarding trading strategy, I prefer a combination of "core HODL + small-position swing trading." Most of my holdings will remain steadfast for long-term value investment, while a small portion will be used for swing trades at key support and resistance levels to lock in profits and reduce average holding costs.

As for policy impacts, this week’s non-farm payrolls, CPI data, US-Iran negotiations, and the Japanese general election are all important variables. If CPI data exceeds expectations, it could reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts, which would be bullish for Bitcoin. Conversely, geopolitical uncertainties might trigger market risk aversion, causing short-term volatility. My approach is to control overall positions in advance, avoid reckless bets, and monitor market reactions after key data releases to make dynamic adjustments.

The crypto market has never moved in a straight line. At critical points of the bulls and bears battle, maintaining rationality and patience is more important than chasing rallies or panic selling.