Reviewing the Bitcoin Bear Market Cycle: What Price Level Truly Marks the Bottom to Start "Bottoming Out"?

In the early morning of February 6th, when Bitcoin dropped below $60,000, the entire cryptocurrency community panicked. Bitcoin had lost 52% of its value from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
But if you look at Bitcoin’s 15-year price history, you’ll see a harsh truth: a 52% decline is just a drop in the ocean of its history.
The Hidden Code Behind the Bitcoin Bear Market Decline
First, let’s examine a dataset:

This table shows a clear trend: the maximum decline in each bear market cycle is decreasing.
From 94% to 87%, then down to 84%, and later to 77%, Bitcoin’s “bear market norm” is narrowing by about 5-10 percentage points each cycle.
To analyze this downward trend more closely:
2011→2013: 7% decrease (94%→87%)
2013→2017: 3% decrease (87%→84%)
2017→2021: 7% decrease (84%→77%)
On average, this rate of decline shrinks by about 5-7 percentage points each cycle.
Why?
With a Larger Market Capitalization, Volatility Naturally Diminishes
In 2011, Bitcoin’s market cap was only a few tens of millions of dollars, and a single “whale” sell-off could cause a 94% drop.
Even if Bitcoin’s price halves from its peak of $60,000 in 2026, its market cap would still exceed $1 trillion. To reduce a trillion-dollar asset by another 30-40%, the volume of sales needed would be several thousand times greater than in 2011.
Institutional Participation Has Created a “Liquidity Buffer”
Before 2018, Bitcoin holders were mainly individual investors and early miners. During panic sell-offs, everyone rushed to sell, and there were no “buyers” left.
From 2022 onward, institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin through ETFs. These organizations are unlikely to panic and sell off their assets during a market crash; their presence acts as a “safety net” in the market.
According to Bloomberg data, by the end of January 2026, the total Bitcoin held in U.S. spot ETFs exceeded 900,000 BTC, worth over $70 billion. This “lock-in” effect directly reduces the available supply of Bitcoin on the market.
Bitcoin’s Evolution from a “Commodity” to an “Asset Class”
From 2011 to 2013, Bitcoin was mainly a tech toy, and its price was entirely driven by market sentiment.
From 2017 to 2021, Bitcoin started being regarded as “digital gold,” but lacked a clear valuation benchmark.
After 2025, with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the GENIUS Act promoting stablecoin regulation, and Trump’s proposed “strategic reserve” plan, regardless of whether these policies are fully implemented, Bitcoin has transitioned from a “marginal asset” to “part of the mainstream financial system.”
The result of this evolution is reduced volatility.
The Supply Shock from the Halving Cycle Is Weakening
Previously, Bitcoin’s price was mainly influenced by its 4-year halving cycle, where new supply was cut by 50% every four years.
When the first halving occurred in 2012, daily new issuance dropped from 7,200 to 3,600, causing a major supply shock.
After the fourth halving in 2024, daily new issuance decreased from 900 to 450. Although the percentage remains the same, the absolute reduction is minimal, and its market impact is diminishing.
The deflationary effect on supply is weakening, and the “speculative frenzy” on demand is cooling off; both factors have contributed to narrowing volatility.
If history repeats, where will the bottom be this time?
Based on the “diminishing decline” trend, we can outline three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Optimistic — Decline narrows to 65%
If the maximum decline in this cycle is 65% (a 12 percentage point increase over the previous 77%, slightly above the historical average):
Lowest price = 126,000 × (1 – 65%) = $44,100
From $60,000 down to $44,100, there’s still a 26% potential drop.
Reasons to support this:

• Institutional holdings are at record highs, with ETFs providing strong buying support.
• Despite the Fed’s hawkish stance, market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from July to June 2026.
• The US White House’s crypto summit on March 7 could signal positive policy developments.
• Despite stablecoin growth slowing, total value locked (TVL) remains above $230 billion.
  Risks:
• If highly leveraged holders like Strategy are forced to sell, it could trigger a chain reaction.
• Trump’s “strategic reserve” promise remains unfulfilled, and markets may be losing patience.
  If you believe this scenario:
  Start building positions gradually below $50,000, increasing as it approaches around $45,000.

Scenario 2: Neutral — Decline of 70-72%
If the maximum decline is 70-72% (strictly following the “5-7% decline per cycle” pattern):
Lowest price (70%) = 126,000 × (1 – 70%) = $37,800
Lowest price (72%) = 126,000 × (1 – 72%) = $35,280
From $60,000 down to $35,000–$37,800, a 37–41% potential drop.
Reasons to support this:

• Aligns with historical trends, neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic.
• Current macroeconomic environment (rate cut expectations + balance sheet shrinkage fears) resembles 2018.
• The $35,000–$38,000 range coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, long considered a strong support level.
  Risks:
• If the US economy enters recession, all risk assets could face indiscriminate sell-offs.
• A bubble burst in AI could trigger a tech stock crash, dragging Bitcoin down.
  If you believe this scenario:
  Keep your main holdings below $40,000, with $35,000–$45,000 as your “big investment zone.”

Scenario 3: Pessimistic — Decline back to 75-80%
If “something truly different” happens, and a market collapse causes the decline to revert to the 2017–2022 average:
Bottom price (75%) = 126,000 × (1 – 75%) = $31,500
Bottom price (80%) = 126,000 × (1 – 80%) = $25,200
A drop from current $70,000 to $25,000–$31,500 would be catastrophic if it falls another 50%.
Reasons to support this:

• The February 6th “double whammy” (simultaneous decline in US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin) shows Bitcoin’s “safe haven” role has failed.
• While ETFs absorb large amounts of stocks, this also means institutions can sell them with a click.
• Trump’s trade policies have sparked a global trade war, potentially leading to a worldwide recession.
• Loss of talent and retreat of venture investors (e.g., co-founder Kyle Samani leaving Multicoin) indicate a trust crisis.
  If you believe this scenario:
  Liquidate all positions now and wait for a total market crash below $30,000 before acting, or keep only 10-20% to gamble while observing the rest.

Don’t Fear Missing Out
Some worry about missing the chance to buy at the bottom of this bear market.
The simple answer: either follow the bullish trend or wait for the next cycle.
Crypto isn’t the only way to change your life. If you think it is, you’ve already lost.
Those who missed out on $150 in 2015 had a real chance when it hit $3,200 in 2018.
Those who missed $3,200 in 2018 still had a shot when it reached $15,000 in 2022.
But the key is surviving to see the next cycle.
Don’t completely abandon the market just because you lost a high-stakes bet.
Most people only care about “buy price,” ignoring “sell timing.”
Here are three examples:

Case 1:
December 2018, Tuyen heavily invested in Bitcoin at $3,200. By June 2019, it rose to $13,000, and Tuyen thought, “Bull run is here,” so he didn’t sell.
By December 2019, it dropped to $7,000, and he thought, “It’s over,” so he cut losses and exited.
Final result: less than 100% profit, and he was out, losing $69,000 by 2021.

Case 2:
Kien bought at $3,200 but set a rule: “I won’t sell until it hits $50,000.” He stayed calm through 2019–2020.
In April 2021, it hit $63,000, and he sold 50%, making 15x profit. He held the rest until it peaked at $69,000 in November 2021, then sold.
Result: an average 18x profit.

Case 3:
Starting December 2018, Nam invested $1,000 monthly, regardless of market direction. After three years, in December 2021, he stopped.
His average cost was about $12,000 (buying cheaper early, more expensive later). When Bitcoin hit $69,000, he sold everything, making roughly 4.7x profit.
Result: not as high as Kien, but he didn’t need perfect timing, making the plan simple.

These cases show that buying at the lowest price isn’t crucial; holding your assets is.
If you don’t plan to hold crypto forever, a “take profit” plan is best. Dollar-cost averaging might not be glamorous, but it’s most suitable for ordinary people. Most won’t buy at the bottom and sell at the top; buying and selling in chunks is a relatively better approach.

Summary: Down Markets Are Opportunities for the Poor to Change Their Lives
Those who bought Bitcoin at $2 in 2011 have gained 30,000 times (even considering recent lows around $60,000).
Those who bought at $150 in 2015 are now worth 400 times more.
Those who bought at $3,200 in 2018 have invested 18.75 times more.
Those who bought at $15,000 in 2022 have quadrupled their capital.
Every bear market redistributes wealth.
Frenzied buyers at peaks are wiped out in bear markets; panicked sellers at bottoms hand over their shares.
The real winners are those willing to accumulate large positions when others are desperate.
If you believe, Bitcoin’s price will surge even higher.
In 2018, when Bitcoin dropped to $3,200, some said “Bitcoin is dead.”
In 2022, when it fell to $15,000, many declared the crypto era over.
By February 2026, when Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, the world wondered: “Is this time really different?”
If you believe “history repeats,” then the next 6–12 months could be one of the few times in your life to invest in the “future” at “relatively low prices.”
Whether you believe it or not is up to you. $BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)