Bitcoin closes red candles for the 5th consecutive month: Oversold but not yet at the bottom

Bitcoin has just recorded five consecutive months of red candles on the monthly chart – a record never before seen in history. If we purely consider the range and technical indicators, this clearly indicates an extremely oversold condition. According to “textbooks,” after such a deep decline, the probability of a green candle rebound is very high. But the bear market has a fundamental rule: never trade based on “theory.” “Following Theory” Is the Easiest Way to Kill Investors in a Bear Market In a bear market, the most dangerous thing is not the sharp decline, but the belief that prices “must” rebound. Sharks and large institutions do not operate the market according to the common models of the masses. They exploit those very expectations to set traps. Previously, when Bitcoin entered its first downtrend, I predicted that BTC would rebound to around $98,000 before continuing to decline. The reality was almost exactly as predicted: the price bounced up to $98,000, but only “touched lightly” and then dropped straight down, giving the market no chance to confirm the trend. As a result, BTC formed a four-month streak of red candles – an extremely rare phenomenon, breaking the confidence of many early bottom fishers. What Is Currently Happening? Rebound, Not Reversal Honestly, no one can precisely predict how long this accumulation phase will last. It could be a few months, or longer. But at this moment, one thing is relatively clear: What the market is experiencing is just a rebound, not a reversal. The major trend has not changed. Market structure, capital flow, investor psychology – none of these are yet sufficient to confirm a new bullish cycle. There Is No “Fast Bear Market” Many hope for a “quick bear market”: sharp decline – bottom formation – bounce back into a new bull run. But history shows the opposite. I still lean toward the scenario: No quick bear market Bear markets are usually very long, exhausting, and time-consuming. A bear market needs time to: Absorb the trapped liquidity at high levels Shake out impatient investors Accumulate enough assets for the next cycle The same applies to bull markets: they do not rise sharply and then crash immediately; they require time to distribute at high levels so that large capital can exit. Conclusion The current market is not for impatience. Anyone trying to “predict the bottom,” “count candles,” or “must have a green candle” is very likely to become liquidity for others. In a bear market: Survival is more important than profit Patience is more important than intelligence And time is always the biggest enemy of those lacking discipline If you can stand firm through this phase, your chances in the next cycle will be much greater. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)