Arthur Hayes identifies a macroeconomic factor influencing the current decline of Bitcoin

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes points out an interesting paradox unfolding in the crypto market. The current decline in BTC value, which has been ongoing for the past weeks with a price of $67.56K and a daily drop of -1.11%, has gained a new interpretation through the lens of macroeconomic indicators rather than traditional crypto factors.

300 Billion Dollars: How Liquidity Is Leaving the Markets

Arthur Hayes highlights a significant capital outflow from financial markets in the coming weeks. According to data circulated through analytical platforms like ChainCatcher, approximately $300 billion in liquidity has been withdrawn from the markets. This is not a random figure — it directly correlates with activity by the U.S. Treasury.

In the expert’s view, the main reason is the accumulation of cash in the Treasury General Account (TGA) amounting to $200 billion. This account, held at the Federal Reserve, essentially functions as the U.S. government’s “cash box.” An increase in its balance signals that government agencies are stockpiling funds in case of unforeseen financial situations or delays in budget negotiations.

TGA and Treasury Operations as Drivers of Price Movements

Arthur Hayes’s observations reveal a deep truth about the relationship between fiscal policy and crypto assets. Historically, inflows into treasury accounts have always meant liquidity tightening across broad markets — stocks fell, bonds fluctuated, and volatile assets, including cryptocurrencies, experienced downward corrections.

Conversely, when the Treasury withdraws funds for expenditures, it injects liquidity back into the system, creating a favorable environment for risk assets. This cycle repeats with remarkable regularity, and Bitcoin seems to remain highly sensitive to such macro waves.

Why Bitcoin Depends on Dollar Flows, Not Crypto News

Arthur Hayes’s conclusion prompts reflection: Bitcoin is often perceived as a digital asset evolving by its own rules, but in reality, it is deeply intertwined with global dollar flows. When the delta of dollar liquidity sharply decreases, as it is now, even the most optimistic crypto prospects cannot prevent prices from correcting.

Against this backdrop, the decline of BTC and other risk assets appears entirely logical and predictable. Arthur Hayes himself emphasizes that the crypto community should pay more attention to macroeconomic indicators in the U.S. than to internal crypto news.