The Yen Could Still Lose Value Despite Concerns About Intervention

MEVSandwichMaker · 2026-02-13T17:13:09+00:00

Despite warnings of potential Japanese government intervention in currency markets, a leading strategist believes the yen will continue to depreciate. The passive stance of the government and concerns over budget deficits may dampen investor interest in yen recovery, while optimism remains for a rising USD/JPY exchange rate.

MEVSandwichMaker

2026-02-13 17:13:09

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Although forex traders continuously warn about the possibility of the Japanese government intervening in the exchange rate market, a top strategist believes the yen will continue to depreciate in the coming period. According to the financial sector, the weakness of the yen remains a focal point for investors, but the negative trend could last longer than expected.

Nikko Securities Analysis: Downward Trend Outlook

Rinto Maruyama from SMBC Nikko Securities released a detailed analysis report on the yen’s prospects. In this study, Maruyama pointed out that if the Japanese government continues to adopt an uncooperative stance toward the current situation or if concerns about the budget deficit increase, market interest in a yen recovery could decline significantly.

Government Passivity Affects Market Sentiment

The key factor emphasized by Maruyama is the government’s response. If Japanese authorities maintain a negative or inactive stance regarding the yen’s weakness, and concerns about rising public debt grow, investor expectations for the yen could erode. This indicates that monetary policy and government attitude play a crucial role in shaping market psychology.

Market Remains Optimistic About USD/JPY Uptrend

However, even with concerns about potential intervention, traders seem to have reached a consensus that the USD/JPY exchange rate will continue its upward trend. Despite warnings about government interference, the momentum of the USD strengthening against the yen appears to have become the dominant forecast in the market. This reflects confidence that macroeconomic factors will continue to exert a stronger influence on the exchange rate than intervention efforts.

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