"GateLive Roundtable" Episode 7: 2026, Crypto "Horse" Marathon: Which Tracks Will Produce Dark Horses?

“Gate Live Roundtable Discussion” is a Chinese-language crypto roundtable hosted by Gate Live, airing promptly every Wednesday at 8:00 PM, focusing on the most discussed industry topics of the moment. We periodically invite core practitioners and frontline observers from blockchain, Web3, DeFi, Ethereum ecosystem, stablecoins, compliance, and policy fields to join in-depth discussions live.

The roundtable emphasizes a relaxed, open, and authentic dialogue atmosphere, exploring market trends, industry disagreements, and key variables from multiple perspectives, helping viewers form clearer, more rational judgments amid complex market narratives.

This episode’s theme: 2026, Crypto “Marathon”: Which Tracks Will Produce Dark Horses?

Guests: Well-known KOL in the Chinese crypto community — Crypto Da Sima, Mr. Misi, Crypto-爱币斯坦

This program is for information exchange and opinion discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice.

(This content is compiled from the live replay, with text assisted and appropriately edited by AI. For the full content, please copy the link: https://www.gate.com/live/video/c91d788a9192c04e1de68fc35c095452)

Host Jesse:

Hello everyone, welcome to tonight’s GateLive roundtable. I am your host Jesse!

Although the new year has just passed, the crypto world’s clock never stops.

Looking back over the past year, we witnessed technological iterations and market resilience amid turbulence. 2026 is the Year of the Horse in the lunar calendar, where the horse symbolizes speed and freedom—fitting the crypto industry’s nature of either advancing or retreating. Some say this market is like an endless “marathon,” where the race isn’t about short-term sprinting but about enduring the bear market and catching the bull’s return.

Starting at the beginning of the new spring work season, we not only review the market movements at the start of the year but also outline potential opportunities for the whole year. Will AI and Crypto continue to lead? Or will new public chains, RWA, or prediction markets emerge as dark horses this year? Today, let’s discuss how to run further and see more clearly in this crypto marathon of 2026.

We are honored to invite three heavyweight industry guests to analyze deeply and help viewers identify opportunities amid chaos. They are: Crypto Da Sima, Mr. Misi, and Crypto-爱币斯坦.

Welcome, three teachers! Looking forward to your insights. Let’s start with brief self-introductions.

Crypto Da Sima:

Hello everyone, good evening. First, Happy New Year to all. I am Crypto Da Sima, currently a crypto analyst, also doing live streams on Gate, with real trading signals on the platform. I also frequently share my research and analysis courses on Twitter, Bilibili, and YouTube. Welcome everyone to follow. I’m very glad to be here with the other two teachers to talk about the Year of the Horse in crypto—hope everyone gains something today.

Mr. Misi:

Hello everyone, I’m Misi. I mainly enjoy researching on-chain alpha and arbitrage opportunities. If you like to research arbitrage or early-stage projects, follow my Twitter. I’m happy to discuss with everyone today. Thank you.

Crypto-爱币斯坦:

Hello everyone, very honored to join GateLive roundtable. I entered the crypto space in 2014, made a lot of money twice, lost a lot twice. I believe that losing money gave me the experience that in the entire crypto circle, to make long-term profits, surviving is the most important.

I used to work at a Fortune 500 company, a US-based enterprise, then served as CMO at a Hong Kong VC firm. I am from Chongqing and also trade on my own. If you want to go further in crypto, having a guide can be a light to illuminate your path. But the road ahead requires your own effort. I hope to share my failed experiences to help everyone avoid more pitfalls.

I also hope everyone can have better profitability in the Year of the Horse and achieve the results they want in the crypto space.

Host Jesse:

Great, thank you all for being here. Let’s not waste time and jump straight into today’s discussion.

Around the Spring Festival, market sentiment is often special. Although we experienced a sharp deleveraging at the start of the year, some structural bright spots appeared. I’d like to ask, based on your on-chain data, fund flows, and macro signals, do you think the overall market trend for 2026 will continue to hover in deep winter, or will there be clear reversal signals?

Crypto Da Sima:

Hello everyone, I’m your old friend Crypto Da Sima. At this Spring Festival node, many are asking whether Bitcoin will have a spring rally. Since 2013, over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has generally seen a rally in the week before and after the Spring Festival. In 13 years, Bitcoin has risen more than 10 times during this period, so the probability is quite high.

But this Spring Festival, today is already the ninth day, and you can see the market is basically oscillating. I checked the price—about $65,000 two weeks ago, and a few days ago it dropped from $68,000 to $62,000.

This year’s market, in fact, did not show a clear volatility during the Spring Festival. Overall, the panic sentiment has even decreased further; I monitor the fear index daily, which has dropped to a low of 5.

What does that mean? Recently, the fear index has fallen below the levels seen after Luna’s crash in 2022, during Bitcoin’s bear market, never so fearful before.

For 2026, I think we shouldn’t be too panicked.

This is the Year of the Horse. We say “horse stepping flying swallows”—if we consider Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, from the 2024 halving to 2028 halving, this year is very critical.

To conclude first: I believe this year’s trend won’t be a straight-up crazy bull run, but also not as pessimistic as January and February. I think it will follow a recovery curve.

Looking back at last October’s peak, Bitcoin was around $126,000, and on weekly charts, it was mostly oscillating downward, with only a few weak rebounds, then continuing to decline.

The lowest was around $59,000, with a maximum drawdown over 52%. Now the price is around $65,000—stuck, unable to go higher or lower. As I mentioned, the fear index is very high.

Especially many retail investors dare not buy the dip. It’s like being seriously ill, going to the hospital, measuring temperature, and the thermometer shows a fever, but the nurse wants to cover you with a white cloth immediately. This extreme fear often signals an overreaction in market sentiment.

Warren Buffett’s famous saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, countless times over 17 years, it has proven that when many are panicking and others are shorting at these prices, it’s usually a good time to buy.

Speaking of sentiment, let’s look at some key factors affecting Bitcoin.

First, ETF data. Gold ETFs have attracted over $16 billion in inflows in the past three months, but Bitcoin, known as “digital gold,” has seen net outflows of over $3 billion. This asymmetry is expected.

Why compare Bitcoin to gold? Because Bitcoin’s qualities—fixed supply, deflationary, 24/7 global settlement, and privacy—make it a good hedge against inflation, hence called digital gold.

Reviewing Bitcoin’s launch day and gold ETF’s history: Gold ETFs started in 2004, and after that, experienced several oscillations. Since Bitcoin’s birth in 2009, you can see on the charts that roughly 3 to 6 months after gold hits new highs, Bitcoin tends to rise and hit new highs as well. Currently, gold just hit a new high of $5,500 per ounce last month.

Bitcoin is now in a correction phase. Whether gold oscillates higher or lower, capital tends to flow back into Bitcoin. That’s my consistent view.

I’ve been buying Bitcoin when it broke below $80,000 and $70,000, even though my average buy-in was relatively high—around $70,000. I’ve been adding positions, and you can see my real trading on Gate, where I buy weekly.

Next, some on-chain data. First is the MVRV ratio: market cap divided by realized value.

This indicates whether the market is in profit or loss overall. When it drops below 1.0, it often signals a bottoming zone. Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV is around 1.1.

Note: this ratio is very low, similar to early 2023. It’s like a lifeline for Bitcoin, meaning the market is roughly evenly split between profit and loss.

If Bitcoin drops further—below $60,000 or $50,000—most holders would be at a loss. Is that likely? I think not. Even if it happens, it would be a brief dip. Last time, when MVRV fell below 1 in early 2023, it took two years to rise fivefold—from $20,000 to $120,000. So, at this level, valuation-wise, it’s quite attractive.

Finally, the long-term holder data: since late 2025, long-term holders have been net selling, but last month and this month, their monthly supply change has shifted from negative to positive, indicating they’re stopping selling and even slightly accumulating. Combining this with the ETF data—since ETF outflows peaked in December and have been decreasing over the past six weeks—it suggests a trend reversal.

In summary, I believe the overall market this year will be positive, especially now at $65,000—your cost basis is lower than many institutions, even lower than Ma’s. My average is around $70,000. No need to be pessimistic; that’s my view.

Mr. Misi:

My outlook for 2026 is that it won’t be a full-year bear environment, but also not a bull.

I see it more as a year of stable oscillation, searching for a bottom. Whether it oscillates upward later or shows structural opportunities depends on market and policy developments.

On macro: the overall economic environment isn’t great.

Before and after the Spring Festival (especially February 2026), the crypto market was relatively panicked, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $63,000.

Spot Bitcoin and ETH ETFs saw continuous fund outflows before the holiday, weakening institutional support and making the market more fragile.

Geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and trade policy fluctuations should favor “digital gold” Bitcoin, but risk-averse funds flowed more into traditional gold.

Though macro isn’t great, it’s not disastrous either.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin demand remains strong in the $60,000–$69,000 range, indicating sufficient buy support at these levels.

However, fund flow data shows institutions are cautious around the Spring Festival.

Spot Bitcoin and ETH ETFs continue to see outflows, weakening upward momentum and making the market more vulnerable to external shocks.

This institutional caution contrasts with the expectation of a new era of institutional integration driven by practical use cases in crypto.

In this environment, a super bull market with assets soaring together seems unlikely; funds will be more selective.

It’s clear that institutional money is becoming smarter and more pragmatic:

Some are gradually making long-term allocations via ETFs and compliant products; others are trading for volatility—buying on dips, selling on rallies.

This structure tends to reduce extreme crashes but increases oscillations and shakeouts.

Third, on-chain realities:

The era of “everyone rises and falls together” is over. The market is clearly stratified:

Top layer: Bitcoin, Ethereum, blue chips—more linked to macro and institutions;

Lower layers: sector rotations like AI + Crypto, on-chain derivatives, new public chains, L2s.

In the future, we might often see:

The overall market looks “meh” on the surface, but certain sectors or ecosystems are already in their own mini-bull runs.

My current view: half a year of “grinding,” with oscillations between bulls and bears, no sharp trend.

In H2, if macro surprises are minimal, I expect a relatively smooth trend—some sectors may perform well. So, whether it’s a continued bear or a reversal:

My cautious answer: I don’t see a repeat of a severe bear market, but a full-blown bull isn’t coming soon either. More likely, a slow upward oscillation with structural opportunities.

Crypto-爱币斯坦:

Thanks to both teachers for their insights. Da Sima mentioned Spring Festival行情, so I’ll give some data:

In 2014, Spring Festival Bitcoin rose 67%; 2015 +25%; 2016 +26%; 2017 +22%; 2018 from $6,025 to $11,785—almost doubled; 2019 +25%; 2020 +27%; 2021 from ~$29,000 to ~$58,000—roughly doubled; 2022 from $32,000 to $45,000—about 40%; 2023 about +17%; 2024 +37%. We can reason that 2025 might have a good rally. But in 2025, the Spring Festival was a decline; this year, I checked data—roughly from $70,000 down to $65,000, a downward move.

The only variable: on January 11, 2024, Bitcoin ETF was approved, bringing in massive institutional funds, changing the fundamental landscape for 2025 and 2026. That’s why this Spring Festival, Bitcoin didn’t perform strongly. When the paradigm shifts, our understanding and strategies must adapt accordingly.

Looking at the big picture: on-chain, whales have been net selling recently. Not just Bitcoin, but also V神 and the treasury companies are selling ETH.

Regarding the US economy: after tariffs, CPI showed a positive signal, and Bitcoin surged—a strange phenomenon. Tariffs should push prices up, but CPI fell. Mainly because, during tariff hikes, goods like apples from India, chips from Vietnam and Taiwan weren’t taxed, reducing CPI for consumer goods.

Geopolitics: on the 26th, Iran-US negotiations are expected, likely to fail, with the US possibly bombing Iran with precision strikes, similar to Israel’s previous strikes—planned and coordinated. Trump might draw the charts and push prices up. If Bitcoin reaches $67K–$69K, I suggest reducing positions, as negotiations might break down.

If negotiations fail, a decline to the five-figure range could occur. I previewed this in my posts from late January to early February; my live streams have replay links. I expect that between late Feb and March, Bitcoin could drop into the five-figure range. Whether it happens or not, only time will tell. I think the best entry points are March to May, maybe extending to July.

Specific timing depends on market sentiment and capital flows. ETF funds have gone from zero to a peak of $150 billion, now below $100 billion, still flowing out.

After Powell steps down on May 31 and Wosh takes over, they will likely continue Trump’s easing and money-printing policies. So, if Bitcoin hits $50K between March and May, it could be a good buy.

The ETF cost basis was $49,000 on January 11, when I was traveling—I sold some. Later, it dropped to $38,500. I think $49K–$38.5K is the institutional bottom line. If it hits that, I suggest buying boldly.

In the second half of the year, I expect a lot of liquidity infusion, so don’t worry too much about Bitcoin. But ETH’s performance in this bull market has been average; many altcoins haven’t risen much, so be cautious. ETH’s inflation rate is 0.34% annually, meaning holders bear inflation. Currently, about 940,000 ETH exist. Roughly, at $1,000 per ETH, that’s over 9 billion USD market cap. If ETH rises further, market cap increases, but whether there’s enough capital to absorb that is a question.

In 2026, I believe the “alt season” will return. First, define it: in 2021, alt season meant any altcoin could earn 10x, 50x, 100x. Now, if you pick the right projects, maybe 5–10x; next cycle, maybe 2–5x. Altcoins will become more selective. Be cautious and discerning.

If you’re a beginner without research ability, I recommend sticking to Bitcoin. Avoid other altcoins to protect your capital. We all want to make money, but from my experience of losing many times, survival and preserving principal come first.

Host Jesse:

Many hot concepts in 2025 (like AI Agents, stablecoins, prediction markets) will they continue to lead in 2026, or will their momentum fade? Which niche track do you see as the biggest “dark horse” this year?

Crypto Da Sima:

First, AI Agents are definitely the top trend. Various platforms have launched AI-related tokens. But data shows that none of these AI tokens have made money from the start of the year to now. Bitcoin was around $70K–$80K at the start and end of 2025, with slight losses. AI tokens, if held, mostly ended up at zero.

The main reason: many AI projects are still not well integrated with crypto. Last year, some tried to make trading bots, but most AI trading bots buy high and sell low, often losing more than humans. So, my view is: conceptually, AI is top-tier, but how to land it on blockchain, its valuation, and narrative still need validation.

Second, stablecoins: last year, the most stable project. If you traded DeFi arbitrage, you know that USDT and USDC offered 3–5% annualized yields. But pure protocol governance tokens or unrelated stablecoin projects performed poorly, similar to AI.

RWA (Real-World Assets): last year was pure hype. Projects claimed “anything can be RWA,” but most of these projects are just picking the fat and thin, with few opportunities for retail investors to profit.

In summary, these three tracks—AI, stablecoins, RWA—probably won’t perform spectacularly in 2026.

The two best-performing tracks I see are: first, prediction markets. They are no longer just blockchain gambling; they use collective wisdom and 24/7 global settlement to price future uncertainties.

Since early 2025, open contracts like Polymarket have hit all-time highs. Mainstream financial platforms like Bloomberg Terminal and Google Finance now integrate Polymarket data. Prediction markets have huge potential because they can do many things.

Second, decentralized derivatives markets. Hyperliquid is a prime example: from $2 at launch to $27 now, with a peak of $60 last year. I remain very optimistic about this project.

So, I focus on these two: prediction markets and decentralized derivatives—both accessible for retail participation. That’s my share.

Mr. Misi:

For 2025’s hot tracks—AI Agents, stablecoins, prediction markets—I think:

They won’t fade completely, but they won’t lead the entire year just on “storytelling.” Instead, they’ll shift from concept hype to actual data and user adoption, focusing on real-world application.

Regarding AI Agents: the hype remains, but the market will be more selective. Projects that can run real business on-chain and generate trading volume and revenue will lead. Opportunities are shifting from hype to application.

Stablecoins: in 2025, they grew steadily. By 2026, stablecoins are infrastructure—USDT, USDC still dominant. New stablecoins face difficulty breaking through. But I see a trend: over-collateralized and native stablecoins are increasing in specific ecosystems like Arbitrum and Solana, where network effects boost user stickiness.

So, stablecoins will grow steadily, not lead but not lag.

Prediction markets: hot in 2025, with platforms like Polymarket gaining attention. But in 2026, actual user engagement and liquidity are somewhat below hype. Most participants are in capital games, not real decision-making. The market may go through a reshuffle.

My favorite areas: on-chain computation and verification layers. As AI and smart contracts grow more complex, proof of correct computation on-chain becomes essential. Few projects exist now, but demand will explode. This infrastructure is promising for 2026.

Crypto-爱币斯坦:

Good, both teachers mentioned prediction markets, so I won’t repeat.

I believe that with ETF approval, compliance will be a future trend. Compliance leads crypto toward two extremes: one like our society, the other like the wild frontier.

I prefer embracing transparency. From an investment perspective, compliance is necessary. If you’ve read “The American Trap,” you know the US can exert long-arm jurisdiction.

With new regulations, gray areas will shrink. Traditional finance will increasingly integrate with DeFi—using its capital to expand on blockchain, and DeFi projects will leverage their tech to support traditional finance.

Ethereum’s V神 has repeatedly said he aims to build a sustainable DeFi ecosystem, including support for traditional finance.

You should define yourself: Are you an investor or a speculator? Do you want to live in transparency or operate in darkness? If you embrace transparency, focus on DeFi. Leading DeFi project: AAVE. If you see yourself as operating in the shadows, pay attention to meme coins and narrative-driven tokens like ORDI or People, which can be short-term hype plays. It depends on your self-positioning. The future will likely be polarized—both extremes can profit, depending on what suits you.

Another area: cross-border payments. Stablecoins are growing steadily, and the payments sector could become a major driver. For example, XRP handles trillions of dollars daily among banks. During this bull run, XRP surged from $0.5 to over $3, with a market cap from hundreds of billions to over a trillion, based on solid fundamentals.

I’m less optimistic about AI Agents; from blockchain’s core logic, AI Agents can’t support such high computational infrastructure. For 2026, Bitcoin remains the top choice among blue chips. Next, I favor exchange platform tokens, especially Gate’s token. It rose from about $3.6 to nearly $26. Now at around $7, if it reaches $30–$40, you might consider allocating 5% of your total funds for a small position. That’s my advice.

Host Jesse:

Final question: investing always involves risk management. The Year of the Horse symbolizes galloping, but beware of “horses stumbling.” What overlooked black swan or gray rhino risks do you see in 2026, and how can we prepare in advance?

Crypto Da Sima:

This question, I’m a bullish subjectively. I think most black swans and gray rhinos are already accounted for.

First, let’s talk about quantum computing—an advancement that could threaten Bitcoin’s security. But Bitcoin can upgrade its algorithms. Quantum computing is still somewhat speculative. If it becomes real, the impact might not be huge, so don’t worry.

Second, political risks: currently, there’s little immediate threat. Although prices fluctuate, Bitcoin remains a strategic reserve asset for the US, and ETFs are ongoing. Newcomers should pay attention to regulatory risks.

Other risks include exchange hacks—like the recent $1.5 billion theft—and on-chain security issues. Always use secure wallets, preferably Gate’s Web3 wallet, which offers risk alerts. Overall, major systemic risks are manageable if precautions are taken.

Mr. Misi:

“Galloping in the Year of the Horse, beware of stumbling”—applies well to investing. Returns matter, but risk management is the foundation.

In 2026, some “black swan” and “gray rhino” risks deserve high alert.

Gray rhinos: big, visible risks that are often ignored or delayed. Key ones:

1. Liquidity and leverage chain reactions: focus on market depth, not just price. Tight liquidity and risk aversion can trigger cascade liquidations—forced selling, panic, and liquidity drying up—especially in late bull phases.

2. Regulatory and compliance restructuring: by 2026, regulation won’t be “if,” but “how.” Clearer rules on stablecoins, exchanges, securities tokens will revalue assets—some will benefit, others will be devalued or lose liquidity access.

3. On-chain security incidents: major protocol breaches, cross-chain exploits, oracle failures, or large-scale smart contract bugs can cause systemic risks, especially when market sentiment is fragile.

Potential black swans are hard to predict, but focus on:

• Platform/Institutional credit events: liquidity crises at top firms, asset mismatches leading to runs.

• Geopolitical escalation or macro shocks: sudden dollar liquidity crunch, correlation spikes, and simultaneous declines.

Preemptive measures: reduce reliance on luck, diversify positions—core long-term, satellite for trading. Always keep cash and reserve bullets for dips. Avoid overexposure on a single platform, chain, bridge, or custody. Prefer well-established protocols, multi-sig/hardware wallets for large funds. Test assets with small amounts first, and perform “stress tests”: if assets drop 30% in a day, platform halts withdrawals, or chains congest, will your portfolio survive?

Hope everyone profits in 2026.

Crypto-爱币斯坦:

I see risks this way: proactively manage risk before problems happen, don’t wait until the crisis hits.

In 2026, potential risks include: DEX failures, DeFi collapses, ETF fund crashes, systemic issues in stablecoins.

Hacker threats are also serious—North Korea has dedicated hacking units. For DEX risks: projects like Hyperliquid have experienced margin calls and liquidations. If a hack hits the liquidity pools, it could cause a cascade.

For trading, prefer stable, regulated exchanges like Gate, which has been stable since 2013. For DeFi, earning interest involves risk—consider putting funds into Gate’s savings products, which offer higher yields than banks.

Regarding treasury failures: some ETH treasury companies have sold large amounts, and others are under stress. When these projects fail, it’s an opportunity to buy the dip.

The best approach: hold cash, wait for bottoms. Why? Because systemic failures often follow economic downturns—like after the pandemic, real economy shrank, and many businesses struggled. When profits dry up, cash becomes king.

Stablecoin projects like USDT, USDC, and XRP’s stablecoin also carry risks—algorithmic stablecoins are especially vulnerable.

Always secure your wallets: disconnect from the internet when generating keys, use hardware wallets cautiously, and prefer custody with reputable, compliant exchanges. Chain thefts are hard to recover from, so risk control must be proactive.

Host Jesse:

Thank you, three guests, for tonight’s insightful sharing!

In this Year of the Horse, perhaps we shouldn’t expect a parade of all making money, but rather a steady racehorse capable of running through winter.

When the noise subsides, what remains is the core value of blockchain technology—shifting from disruptor to the underlying infrastructure of global finance. This may lack some romance but gains authenticity.

Thanks for listening. In 2026, I wish everyone speed and wisdom—run your own race in this crypto marathon. See you next time!