#CanBitcoinReclaim$70K?

#BTC能否重返7万美元？
Date: 27 February 2026
Current Price Structure: BTC consolidating around $67,000
Bitcoin is once again approaching the critical $70,000 level, and this is not just about reclaiming a round number. This level represents a structural inflection point in liquidity behavior, institutional positioning, and overall market psychology. At the time of writing, BTC is fluctuating near $67,000 after stabilizing from recent volatility, and the market is compressing in a tight range that typically precedes expansion.
First, addressing the so-called “10 o’clock selling pressure.” For several weeks, there appeared to be systematic intraday dumps occurring at similar time windows, creating fear among short-term traders and conditioning the market to expect downside spikes. Following recent legal pressure on major market entities, this pattern has noticeably weakened. Funding rates have normalized, open interest is building more gradually, and liquidation cascades have become smaller in magnitude. Order books show fewer aggressive spoof walls and more passive bid absorption around the $66,000 region. This shift suggests that if manipulation was present, it has transitioned from visible distribution to quieter accumulation. Regulatory scrutiny often forces large players to change tactics rather than exit the game entirely.
Technically, the road to $70,000 is layered with resistance zones. The first critical level sits between $68,200 and $68,500. This area aligns with a previous breakdown origin, short-term moving average clusters, and trapped long liquidity. A breakout without strong spot volume would likely fail here. The next barrier lies between $69,200 and $69,600, where stop-loss clusters and short liquidation pockets are concentrated. If momentum accelerates through this band, a rapid push toward $70,000 becomes structurally possible due to liquidation fuel.
The major structural resistance sits between $70,000 and $70,800. This is a psychological magnet, a macro lower-high retest, and a heavy options open interest zone. For a sustainable breakout above $70,000, BTC needs a daily close above $70,500 supported by strong spot-driven demand, stable ETF inflows, rising RSI without bearish divergence, and a calm macro backdrop. Without these factors, a rejection toward $63,000–$64,000 remains possible.
On-chain behavior supports cautious optimism. Long-term holders are not aggressively distributing. Exchange reserves remain relatively stable. Dormant coin movement is limited. Whale wallets show controlled positioning rather than panic selling. Historically, major downturns begin with heavy long-term holder distribution, which is not currently evident.
Macro conditions also matter. Equity markets remain relatively stable, the dollar index is not aggressively strengthening, and broader risk appetite has improved compared to previous weeks. Bitcoin performs best when macro volatility is contained and liquidity expectations are stable. If equities remain firm, BTC has room to expand upward. A sudden risk-off event, however, would challenge any attempt to reclaim $70,000.
From a positioning perspective, this $66,000–$67,000 range is a compression zone rather than a breakout zone. My strategy favors gradual accumulation within this band while maintaining capital flexibility in case of a liquidity sweep toward $64,000. I do not chase price near resistance. If BTC breaks above $68,500 with strong volume, I would increase exposure. A confirmed daily close above $70,500 would shift the structure toward a continuation narrative targeting $73,000–$75,000. If rejection occurs at $70,000, a healthy retracement before the next attempt would be structurally normal.
In probability terms, the short-term likelihood of testing $68,500 is high given the current compression. The probability of reclaiming $70,000 depends entirely on volume quality and institutional participation. A weak breakout would likely fail. A spot-driven breakout with derivatives alignment could trigger a stronger expansion phase.
The key takeaway is that $70,000 is not just resistance; it is a sentiment shift level. Below it, the market narrative remains a rebound. Above it, the narrative becomes continuation. Right now, the market is building pressure. Compression typically leads to expansion. The only uncertainty is direction and strength.
I remain strategically positioned, patient, and focused on confirmation rather than anticipation. The next several daily closes will determine whether Bitcoin transitions into a renewed bullish phase or revisits deeper liquidity before the next structural move.