Investors Could Be "Playing With Fire," According to Warren Buffett. Is a Stock Market Crash Coming?

By many accounts, Americans are feeling uncertain about the future.

A survey from the Pew Research Center found that more than 70% of Americans have a negative view of the economy, with 38% expecting economic conditions to worsen. The Motley Fool’s 2026 Investor Outlook report also found that 45% of survey participants worry that inflation will stay stubbornly high, and 37% are concerned about a weakening labor market.

While nobody can say exactly what the market will do this year, Warren Buffett has some wise words for investors navigating times like these.

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The Buffett indicator is sounding the alarm

In the late 1990s, Buffett predicted that the dot-com bubble would turn into a bear market. One of the metrics he used was the ratio between the total value of the U.S. stock market and U.S. GDP – now nicknamed the Buffett indicator.

After the tech bubble burst, Buffett explained the specifics of how he uses this indicator in an interview with Fortune Magazine.

“For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you,” he noted. “If the ratio approaches 200% – as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 – you are playing with fire.”

The Buffett indicator measures whether the overall market is over- or undervalued. The higher the ratio, the more overvalued stocks might be. As of this writing, the Buffett indicator sits at close to 220%.

Is a stock market crash coming?

It’s important to note that no stock market metric can predict the future with 100% accuracy, as past performance doesn’t forecast future returns.

The Buffett indicator, specifically, may not be as accurate now as it once was. Company valuations have skyrocketed as the tech industry continues to grow, so it’s normal, to a degree, for this indicator to be on the higher side. That doesn’t necessarily mean the market isn’t overvalued, but the metric surpassing 200% in 2026 may not carry as much weight as it would have 25 years ago.

That said, it’s still a smart move to prepare for a market downturn anyway. Stock prices can’t keep surging forever, so regardless of whether a pullback occurs in 2026 or beyond, taking steps now to protect your portfolio will ensure you’re ready for anything.

How to protect your investments

You can’t prevent a stock market crash or recession from hitting, and it’s likely that your portfolio will lose at least some value during a downturn. But strong investments are far more likely to weather periods of volatility and deliver positive total returns over time.

The strongest stocks are from companies with the most robust foundations. Fundamental analysis is a way for investors to examine a company’s overall health to determine whether it’s likely to perform well over time, and it includes everything from examining balance sheets to reviewing an executive team’s past decision-making in pivotal moments.

Even Buffett can’t predict what the market will do in the coming months. But preparation is key to surviving a recession or crash, and if there’s only one move you make, it should be to ensure you’re investing in healthy long-term stocks.