Nvidia Earnings: Another Stellar Quarter With No Signs of a Slowdown

Key Morningstar Metrics for Nvidia

• Fair Value Estimate: $240
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

What We Thought of Nvidia’s Earnings

Nvidia NVDA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year over year, up 20% sequentially, and ahead of guidance. Nvidia expects April-quarter revenue of $78.0 billion, which would be up 77% year over year and ahead of FactSet consensus estimates of $72.9 billion.

Why it matters: We see no signs of slippage at Nvidia, as revenue growth is accelerating from recent quarters, thanks to the massive growth in artificial intelligence capital expenditure announced by large cloud computing companies. An “AI bubble” does not appear imminent.

• Nvidia expects sequential growth in each of the four quarters of calendar 2026. Supported by a strong fiscal first-quarter outlook, management suggested that its prior guidance of $300 billion of Blackwell and Rubin product revenue in calendar 2026 will be conservative.
• The forecast does not include any data center computing revenue sold into China, despite prior approvals of H200 sales. Our model does not incorporate a massive uptick in Nvidia’s China revenue in the years ahead.

The bottom line: We maintain our $240 fair value estimate for wide-moat Nvidia. Shares were flattish after hours, and we still view shares as undervalued. We anticipate that leading cloud companies, model builders, and governments will continue to invest in the promise of AI.

• We maintain our Morningstar Very High Uncertainty Rating as the timing and magnitude of AI adoption are unclear in the decade ahead.
• One risk for Nvidia is that it hasn’t yet signed its previously announced deal with OpenAI. Nvidia stated that it “believes it is close” on signing the deal, although outside reports suggest it may be a smaller deal in size.

Coming up: In most quarters from calendar 2023 to 2025, Nvidia generally increased its data center revenue by about $4 billion, as new supply came online. We’re impressed that Nvidia’s fiscal first-quarter guidance implies $11 billion of incremental revenue sequentially.