Hedera HBAR Shows Bullish Divergence Signals Despite 40% Pullback From November Highs

HBAR entered March 2026 recovering from a sharp correction that wiped out significant gains from late 2025. Since November, the token has declined more than 40%, with the steepest losses occurring during the January-early February sell-off. Yet beneath the surface, technical indicators are painting a mixed but intriguing picture. While volume data raises caution flags, the emerging bullish divergence across key money flow metrics suggests that institutional buyers haven’t fully exited the market. The question now is whether this divergence can sustain momentum, or whether weakening volume will cap any recovery attempt.

Capital Accumulation Amid the Decline—Spotting the Bullish Divergence

Despite heavy selling pressure, HBAR has maintained a constructive structural pattern since October 2025. The price has been consolidating within a falling wedge formation—a technical setup where lower highs and lower lows gradually narrow, typically signaling diminishing selling pressure. What’s more revealing is the bullish divergence forming beneath the price action.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks institutional capital flows, has been trending upward since late December while price moved downward through January and early February. This bullish divergence is a classic accumulation signal: big money entering as retail panic sellers exit. The Money Flow Index (MFI) reinforces this view, showing a similar pattern over the past two months. Traders have been consistently buying dips, and MFI recently curled upward from around 41, suggesting renewed accumulation interest.

Together, CMF and MFI present a compelling bullish divergence case. The presence of this divergence indicates that despite the visible price weakness, underlying demand has been quietly building. This is precisely the type of setup that often precedes sharp reversals.

The Volume Problem—When Bullish Divergence Isn’t Enough

However, the bullish divergence narrative hits a significant roadblock when examining exchange flows and volume data. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which measures whether volume supports upward or downward moves, has been deteriorating. In late January, OBV broke below a key descending trendline, continuing a weakness that began in October. This creates a bearish divergence that directly contradicts the money flow signals.

The contradiction becomes clearer when looking at spot exchange data. From October through early February, HBAR recorded a three-month streak of consistent weekly net outflows—more tokens leaving exchanges than entering. This sustained outflow typically supports the accumulation narrative. But the recent shift is telling: in early February, the streak ended with HBAR recording approximately $749,000 in net inflows in a single week.

This break in the outflow streak coincides with the OBV breakdown. So while the bullish divergence in CMF and MFI suggests accumulation, the weakening OBV and return of inflows indicate that the broader market is no longer absorbing supply as aggressively as before. Without strong volume backing, even the best-looking technical setup can fail to deliver a sustained rally.

Price Levels That Will Test the March Outlook

With bullish divergence signals competing against volume concerns, specific price levels become the ultimate arbiter of near-term direction.

Downside critical zones: Support sits near $0.076. If HBAR holds above this level while the bullish divergence indicators continue improving, recovery attempts can extend higher. A clean break below $0.076, however, would signal that sellers are reasserting control—something the weakening OBV is already hinting at. Below that level, targets open near $0.062 and ultimately $0.043.

Upside resistance zones: The first hurdle is $0.090, which has capped rallies since January. Reclaiming this area would demonstrate early confidence returning. Above $0.090 lies the major test at $0.107. A sustained move above $0.107 would confirm a breakout from the falling wedge pattern, potentially activating a measured target pointing to a 52% gain.

At the current price of $0.10 (as of March 5), HBAR sits near the critical $0.090-$0.107 range, where the battle between the bullish divergence case and volume weakness is being decided in real time. For the bullish divergence to materialize into a genuine recovery, buyers must demonstrate they can overcome the volume headwinds and hold these technical levels convincingly.