Market Retrospective: Trend Reversal in Precious Metals, Crypto Volatility, and New Opportunities in Technology

Retrospective is not just a statement of facts — it’s an analysis of how political decisions, macroeconomic shifts, and investor behavior shape the modern financial landscape. In early February 2026, global markets faced a series of serious shocks that affected all major asset classes — from precious metals to cryptocurrencies. Here’s a more detailed breakdown of key events and their long-term consequences.

Political Decisions as a Catalyst for Volatility

Trump’s announcement of Kevin Waugh’s appointment as Federal Reserve Chair generated mixed expectations. On one hand, Waugh’s stance on tightening the Fed’s balance sheet conflicts with the administration’s desire to lower borrowing costs. On the other hand, his mentor Stanley Druckenmiller defended him, emphasizing that the candidate’s views on monetary policy are balanced.

The simultaneous appointment of Brett Matsuoto as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is even more significant: this agency is responsible for publishing key labor indicators that influence central bank decisions worldwide. Expectations regarding future Fed independence led to a strengthening of the dollar and an increase in the yield curve slope of U.S. Treasury bonds.

At the same time, the U.S. Senate approved a $1.2 trillion spending package, but the full year of 2026 began with a brief federal government shutdown. Although the effect was short-lived, it increased short-term market uncertainty.

Precious Metals: From Historic Crash to Recovery

The turnaround in gold and silver markets in early February shows how quickly investor sentiment can change. After historic declines on Friday, both metals opened lower on Monday but then moved into a rapid recovery phase. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) increased margin requirements for gold, silver, and other precious metals futures due to extreme volatility.

Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett noted that the current “bull market” in gold could only end with a larger geopolitical or macroeconomic event. More optimistic forecasts come from leading investment banks: UBS predicts gold at $4,200 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs sees potential up to $4,900.

The oil market shows the opposite dynamic: supply is growing three times faster than demand, exerting constant downward pressure on prices. The average WTI price stabilized around $59 per barrel, reflecting structural imbalance in the energy market.

Cryptocurrencies: Liquidation Pressure and Loss of Momentum

Bitcoin temporarily dropped below $76,000, but as of the latest data (March 3, 2026), it recovered to $72,710 with a one-day gain of +1.61%. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.69 trillion, up 1.9%, but the overall trend remains downward.

Ethereum faced even greater pressure, falling to a low of $1,830, but currently rebounded to $2,130 with a +3.00% increase. According to research firm Trend Research, liquidation levels for ETH-backed loans have fallen to critical levels, resulting in losses of $562 million on long position liquidations.

Protocol Formula founder sold his ETH holdings, fearing that corrections in the U.S. stock market could impact the crypto sector. Simultaneously, Michael Saylor reposted information about a Bitcoin tracker, hinting at possible large purchases during February. Major token unlockings for HYPE, BERA, and XDC are expected this week, with HYPE’s unlock valued at approximately $305 million.

Stock Indices and Tech Sector: Selective Recovery

Major U.S. indices showed mixed results. Dow Jones fell 0.36%, S&P 500 declined 0.43%, and Nasdaq suffered the most with a 0.94% drop, mainly due to pressure on tech stocks.

Among large tech companies, divergence was observed: Tesla rose 3.32% despite the overall trend, fueled by rumors of a possible merger involving Musk’s companies (SpaceX and xAI). Competition in AI prompted the founder to reconsider the structure of his holdings, exploring an IPO for SpaceX or deeper integration of tech assets.

Nvidia decreased 0.72%, Google A down 0.07%, Microsoft down 0.74%, Amazon down 1.01%, Meta Platforms down 2.95%, and Apple fell 0.5%. This reflects a broader reevaluation of the tech sector among investors.

Individual Stories in Tech and Energy

SanDisk shows potential for super profitability. Semiconductor manufacturer shares surged over 25% at peak and closed up 6.85% after Bernstein raised its target price to $1,000 — 85% above current valuation. The rally was driven by revenue and earnings per share beating forecasts, with margins expanding from 52.1% to 65-67%. Analysts see the start of a “super-profitable phase” due to explosive demand for memory.

Oracle attracts $50 billion for cloud infrastructure. The company’s plans for 2026 include issuing bonds and shares totaling $45-50 billion to expand cloud infrastructure. This is in response to soaring demand from AMD, Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI, xAI, and other tech giants needing computing power for AI development.

Waymo raises $16 billion. Google’s division is securing funding with a valuation of $110 billion, including $13 billion from Alphabet and the rest from Sequoia Capital and other VCs. The deal is expected to close in February 2026, strengthening its position in the robo-taxi market amid rising competition.

ExxonMobil: profit in 2025 below previous year. Although quarterly earnings per share ($1.71) beat forecasts, total profit for 2025 was $28.8 billion, down from $33.7 billion in 2024. Excluding asset impairments, the figure rose to $30.1 billion, but volatility in oil prices and shifts in global energy demand continue to exert pressure.

Market Risks and Outlook

This current market retrospective also serves as a warning about risks from excessive leverage globally. Goldman Sachs emphasizes the importance of considering the start of the year when assessing market movements and not overreacting to declines. However, investors should pay close attention to geopolitical uncertainties and potential further liquidations.

The upcoming OPEC-JMMC meeting this week could lead to important announcements regarding oil production policies, potentially impacting the dynamics of all commodity markets.

All information above is compiled from open sources, thoroughly verified, and provided solely for informational purposes, not as investment advice.