HBAR Bears Dominate as $4.5M Liquidation Looms at Key Fib Retracement Level

HBAR is caught in a bearish grip, with price action firmly under pressure as momentum struggles to build. The token currently trades near $0.10 after shedding 1.25% over the past 24 hours, leaving traders wondering if recovery is even possible. But beneath the surface, derivatives markets are painting a riskier picture—one where a single sharp move could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations and amplify volatility.

Short Traders Face Heavy Losses if HBAR Breaks Above $0.114

The liquidation map tells a dramatic story: massive short positions are clustered near the $0.114 level, creating a powder keg scenario for bears. Should HBAR rally to that price point, approximately $4.5 million in short liquidations would be triggered, forcing rapid covering that could accelerate gains.

Right now, the derivatives market leans heavily toward shorts over longs—a crowded positioning that amplifies risk on both sides. When too many traders sit on the same side of a trade, even modest price movements can spark sharp reversals. The current imbalance reflects pervasive bearish sentiment across crypto derivatives, but it also hints at a potential flashpoint if bulls manage to push through resistance.

Coinglass data confirms the danger: that $0.114 zone represents the single largest cluster of short positions. A breakthrough there would force rapid buybacks in quick succession, creating exactly the kind of explosive move that catches traders off-guard.

Capital Outflows Weaken Recovery Odds Despite Fib Retracement Support

Macro signals are worsening HBAR’s case for a bounce. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether money is flowing into or out of an asset based on price and volume dynamics, has trended lower for nearly two weeks. The indicator recently crossed below zero, confirming that net outflows now dominate inflows.

This matters because it signals investor sentiment is shifting toward selling rather than accumulating. Persistent capital departures typically delay recovery attempts and pile additional pressure on price unless sentiment flips decisively. With buyers nowhere to be found and sellers taking profits, HBAR’s chances of holding support have diminished.

Can HBAR Reclaim the 23.6% Fib Level to Reverse Bearish Trend?

From a technical standpoint, HBAR is hovering dangerously close to the 23.6% fib retracement level—a critical zone that acts as a pivot for trend direction. This fib retracement level represents one of the most important support points in the current downtrend.

If HBAR loses this level, the next target becomes the 2026 low near $0.102, which would extend the downtrend and cement bearish conviction across both spot and derivatives markets. Conversely, if bulls manage to defend the 23.6% fib retracement as support, it could challenge the prevailing bearish bias and improve the odds of a deeper recovery.

The technical setup at this critical fib zone will likely determine the next chapter. Holding above it signals potential strength; breaking below confirms further weakness.

Bull vs Bear Scenario: Which Path at the Critical Fib Zones?

The Bullish Case: A confirmed reclaim of the 23.6% fib retracement level would be the first bullish confirmation. Flipping this zone into support could lift HBAR toward the 38.2% fib level near $0.112. Breaking the $0.115 resistance would then open the door for that cascade of short liquidations—potentially triggering a broader recovery and invalidating the bearish narrative entirely.

The Bearish Case: If capital continues to drain and HBAR fails to defend the 23.6% fib retracement, downside risks extend toward $0.102. This scenario would reinforce bearish momentum and lock in further losses across derivatives positions.

The outcome hinges on whether buyers can step in before HBAR loses its critical fib retracement support. For now, the momentum remains with the bears.