Target beats low earnings expectations as markets crater

Tuesday was set for an ugly market open, with S&P 500 futures sinking more 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 800 points. “Safe haven” trades were surging, with investors piling into gold and inflows on track to break last year’s record.

The rare bright spot? Target $TGT -0.60%. The retail giant released fourth-quarter results that weren’t as bad as expected, and amid the deepening and market-rattling U.S. conflict in Iran, that was enough to pass for good news.

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For the quarter ended Jan. 31, Target posted fourth-quarter net sales of $30.5 billion, down 1.5% from a year ago, with comparable sales falling 2.5%.

The headline number may sting, but the composition of sales tells a more interesting and nuanced story. Even as store traffic dropped about 3%, the customers who did show up spent slightly more. “Food & Beverage, Beauty and Toys delivered net sales growth in the quarter, with stronger trends in Essentials and Home compared to the third quarter,” as the release noted. Even better, same-day delivery surged over 30%. Target’s membership revenue more than doubled.

On an adjusted basis, earnings per share came in at $2.44, just slightly better than last year’s $2.41, and within the company’s own conservative guidance range. In other words, meeting a low bar, but one Target has nevertheless been tripping over for much of the last year. Full-year adjusted EPS landed at $7.57, down hard from $8.86 in 2024. Markdowns, canceled purchase orders and their associated fees, and sales growth in less-profitable categories all bit into margins.

The more consequential number may be one Target’s new CEO Michael Fiddelke (in the chair only two months now) dropped_ almost _casually into his prepared remarks, with the retailer seeing “a healthy, positive sales increase in February.” After 2025’s yearlong slide, that single data point is doing plenty of heavy lifting.

For 2026, the company is guiding for about 2% net sales growth and earnings straddling 2025’s, but with the high-end of the range rising over last year’s figures. Again, these are modest numbers — sandbags, almost. But on a day when the VIX — Wall Street’s gauge of fear and volatility — jumped an eye-watering 30%, modest and solvent are qualities the market’s prepared to take on board, with gratitude. Shares of the retailer rose 4% premarket.

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