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[US Stock Market Open] Iran retaliates, expands Persian Gulf front, oil prices surge back to post-war highs, Dow Jones drops 345 points (updating)
The Iran war enters its sixth day, with conflicts in the Middle East rapidly spreading across the region, including Qatar and Bahrain. Azerbaijan also reports being attacked by drones from Iran, while Tehran claims its navy aircraft attacked a US oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf.
Market sentiment remains cautious, with oil prices fluctuating, currently at $83.88 per barrel, up 3%. Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that passage is governed by rules set by Iran.
U.S. stocks opened lower, with the Dow down 345 points to 48,394; the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,844; and the Nasdaq declined 0.3% to 22,742.
The US dollar index rose above 99, gaining 0.3% to 99.06; US long-term bond yields increased to approximately 4.141%; international gold prices fell, currently at $5,096 per ounce, down 0.8%.
First Eagle Investment Management states that rising risks have caused insurers to refuse coverage for voyages, leading to a halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Continued disruptions could push oil prices higher, severely impacting the global economy, especially China and other Asian markets heavily reliant on oil imports via this strait.
The firm notes that even if OPEC+ agrees to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting April, most major oil-producing countries in the alliance depend heavily on exports through the Strait of Hormuz—meaning ongoing shipping disruptions could not be easily alleviated by increased output alone.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.
Market live updates:
【17:45】 Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices fluctuate. Dow futures down 120 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.1%.
【13:06】 Dow futures down 139 points at 48,657; S&P futures down 9 points at 6,866; Nasdaq futures down 36 points or 0.1% at 25,092.
【13:03】【BTC trend】Bitcoin surged past $73,000, boosted by regulatory concerns and geopolitical safe-haven demand. “Croc King” Dario warns of a major risk.
【12:37】【US stock analysis】VIX fear index declines, boosting stocks. Market sentiment remains cautious, with oil prices still within “manageable” ranges.
【12:29】【Iran crisis】China reportedly instructs major refineries to suspend diesel and gasoline exports, halting new contracts and canceling existing freight agreements.
【12:14】【Iran crisis】Natural gas prices surge; EU may reconsider Russia’s gas import ban.
【11:48】【AI + chips】Meta plans to develop custom chips for training its AI models.
【11:36】【AI + defense】After being blocked by the US government, Anthropic reportedly continues negotiations with the Department of Defense on AI agreements.
【09:57】【US rate cuts】Federal Reserve Board member Milan states that Iran conflict will not change the need for rate cuts, reaffirming four cuts this year.
【09:33】【AI + NVDA】Jensen Huang: OpenAI will be listed by the end of the year; no longer considering a $100 billion investment.
【08:47】【AAPL】Apple launches affordable MacBook Neo starting at $4,799, with four color options and powered by iPhone A18 Pro chip, targeting students and challenging Windows PCs and Chromebooks.
【08:15】【AI + AVGO earnings】Broadcom’s AI revenue doubles; AI chip sales expected to exceed $100 billion next year. Shares rise 0.5% after hours.
【07:52】【Layoffs】Morgan Stanley reportedly plans to cut 3% of staff, mainly in investment banking, trading, and asset management.
【06:49】【Iran crisis】White House: Will take full control of Iran’s airspace in the coming hours; Spain has agreed to cooperate with US military (ongoing updates).
Below $1: US stock market overview on March 4====
Wednesday: Dow up 238 points; Nasdaq up 1.3%; Iran denies indirect talks with US; Fed’s Milan supports continued rate cuts.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen states that the government will implement measures to stabilize Persian Gulf oil transportation, indicating US intent to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has blocked. Iran denies indirect negotiations with the US.
See US stock market close:
Market live updates:
【21:30】【Iran crisis】A cargo ship breaches the Strait of Hormuz, caught fire after attack.
【21:00】【Oil price trend】How much would oil prices rise if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for weeks?
【19:00】Oil and gold prices continue to rise; Dow futures up 45 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%.
【13:35】Dow futures down 225 points at 48,335; S&P futures down 41 points; Nasdaq futures down 212 points or 0.9% at 24,543.
【12:32】US stock analysis】Iran situation caused Dow to fall nearly 1,300 points; analysts suggest focusing on optical communication stocks and lagging sectors.
【11:59】【Oil price analysis】Oil surged another 1% to high levels; Trump administration providing insurance for oil tankers. Resistance at $80 for NYMEX crude.
【11:45】【Iran crisis】Middle East tensions unsettle Asia-Pacific markets; South Korea’s stock index drops over 9%, triggering circuit breakers; Japanese stocks fall over 2,000 points.
【11:31】【AI + models】OpenAI releases GPT-5.3 Instant, offering more accurate and smoother conversational experience.
【10:21】【Gold price trend】Gold and silver rebound after sharp declines; gold above $5,100 in Asia; silver up 3% to $85.
【08:49】【Iran crisis】Fed officials cite war as new uncertainty in monetary policy; energy prices remain key.
【07:23】【Iran crisis】Trump: Cutting trade with Spain, war ends, oil prices will be lower than before.
【06:51】【Iran crisis】Islamic Revolutionary Guard: Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 3 weeks, risking severe global economic crisis (ongoing updates).
Below $1: US stock market overview on March 2====
Tuesday: Trump announces insurance guarantees and naval escort for oil tankers; Dow only down 403 points.
Fourth day of Iran war; stock markets follow Iran conflict news. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged 9.5%, reaching $77.98. The Dow fell 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq declined 2.7%, low at 22,124.
See US stock market close:
Trump announces insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to restore oil transport and stabilize prices. The Dow recovers some losses, closing down only 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,501; S&P down 0.9% at 6,816; Nasdaq down 1% at 22,516.
Oil prices end the day up 5%, with NYMEX crude at $74.65 and Brent at $81.72.
Trump posts on Truth Social that he has ordered US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade in the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.
He also states that if necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz promptly.
“Regardless, the US will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide. Our economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”
The US dollar index rose 1.3% during the day but settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4%. Gold prices fell 4.3%, to $5,094.87, silver down 8%, at $82.23.
Manulife notes that global bond yields have recently risen, possibly reflecting market concerns about inflation returning and fears over future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict persists for more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.
Pictet Wealth Management states that in the very short term, the Iran war will likely weigh on stocks due to geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil prices. However, history shows such negative impacts are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and commodities.
The firm suggests that if the conflict remains short, oil prices could return to pre-crisis levels, with overall macroeconomic impact remaining limited. Nonetheless, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Fed might delay future rate cuts depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given US energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the US as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.
Market live updates:
【13:27】 Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809.
【11:41】【Iran crisis】Franklin D. Roosevelt CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks.
【11:19】【Iran crisis】Oil surged another 1% early; analysts expect the conflict to be short-lived, with NYMEX crude trading between $70-$75, and gold prices retreating after the easing of tensions.
【10:50】【AI + competition】OpenAI users launch boycott; Anthropic’s Claude surpasses ChatGPT, topping US App Store charts.
【10:46】【AI + defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense to ensure AI is not used for monitoring US citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence units.
【10:36】【US tariffs】US Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can proceed swiftly.
【10:10】【AI front line】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly plan to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debt.
【09:02】【Iran crisis】Liu: Plans to curb oil price surges; Trump administration reportedly has no current plans to use strategic petroleum reserves.
【08:39】【Rate cuts】Yellen: Iran conflict adds new uncertainty to US monetary policy; energy prices remain a key factor.
【07:23】【Iran crisis】Trump: Four main goals in striking Iran; US Defense Department reports firing tens of thousands of missiles over two days, including ground-launched missiles from the US (ongoing updates).
Below $1: US stock market overview on March 2====
Monday: Trump reports rapid progress in the war; Nasdaq rises 0.4%; Anthropic experiences outages, Nvidia jumps 3%
Due to many users switching from OpenAI to Anthropic, the latter experienced outages, reflecting strong growth among paid users, which could boost revenue but also indicate insufficient computing power. Nvidia (US: NVDA) surged 3%, closing at $182.48, boosting the Nasdaq.
See US stock market close:
Trump holds a press conference, stating the war is initially expected to last 4 to 5 weeks, but actual progress has far exceeded expectations. For example, the US believed it would take 4 weeks to dismantle Iran’s military leadership, but it was achieved in about an hour. Overall, the pace is well ahead of schedule. However, he did not set a time limit, saying, “It doesn’t matter how long it takes. Whatever is needed, we will do it.”
Israel and the US continue bombing. As the war persists, European and Middle Eastern countries are mediating a ceasefire, reducing war risk premiums. The US dollar index rises 1% to 98.55; gold prices surged 2.7%, reaching a high of $5,419.11, and closed up 0.9% at $5,325. Silver fell sharply by 7.7%, to $86.54. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 4.03%.
Under the shadow of war, the Dow once fell 599 points to a low of 48,377, but recovered to close down only 73 points at 48,904; the S&P gained 2 points to 6,881; the Nasdaq rose 0.4% to 22,748.
Oil prices soared, with Brent crude up 13% at a high of $82.37, closing up 7.2% at $78.12; NYMEX crude rose 12.4% to a high of $75.33, closing up 6.4% at $71.33.
Major stocks generally declined amid global turbulence, but Palantir (US: PLTR) gained 5.8% as its Ontology technology integrated satellite imagery and communication monitoring data, significantly improving decision-making.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the timing of military actions against Iran will be decided by President Trump.
Invesco’s Benjamin Jones expects stocks to fall short-term after the conflict, but the outlook depends on how the situation develops. He believes most impacts will be reflected through rising oil prices. Cyclical and consumer sectors may be hit hardest, while defense, energy, and gold mining stocks could benefit from geopolitical tensions.
Key data this week will include February unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.
Market live updates:
【22:30】 Iran crisis drags stocks down; Dow down 495 points; Nasdaq down 1.3%; Palantir up 3% against the trend.
【18:10】 Iran crisis causes Dow futures to fall 570 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.3%; oil surges 10%; gold reclaims $5,400.
【15:44】 NYMEX crude up 8.6% to $72.79; Brent down 9.1% to $79.49.
【15:28】 Dow futures down 640 points at 48,360; S&P futures down 94 points; Nasdaq futures down 438 points or 1.8% at 24,566.
【12:31】 Dow futures down 369 points at 48,631; S&P futures down 50 points; Nasdaq futures down 206 points or 0.8% at 24,798.
【11:52】【Iran crisis】Jungli Henderson Investment: Current oil prices reflect a “limited scale, short duration” conflict scenario.
【11:48】【Iran crisis】UAE stock market closed for two days; government announces full coverage of stranded travelers’ expenses.
【11:25】【Iran crisis】Middle East conflict disrupts energy markets; economists warn of increased global risks, with some countries most affected.
【10:50】【Iran crisis】If the Strait of Hormuz closes for a month, Goldman Sachs warns European natural gas prices could surge 130%, with crude oil rising by $15 at worst.
【10:09】【Major bank views】UBS downgrades US stocks to “in line with the market” for six reasons; remains optimistic on emerging markets and four key countries.
【08:06】【Oil price trend】Iran crisis pushes oil prices higher; Brent up over 8%; Strait of Hormuz shutdown.
【07:50】【Gold price trend】Gold rises nearly 2%, surpassing $5,300; silver up over 2%, driven by Middle East war safe-haven demand.
【07:30】【Iran crisis】Bloomberg estimates oil could rise 49%; Trump: Qasem Soleimani and three Americans killed, fighting will continue until goals are achieved (ongoing updates).
【07:30】【Global weekly preview】Focus on geopolitical developments and US employment data; February unemployment expected to stay at 4.3%.
【07:30】US stocks fell last Friday. Major US financial stocks plunged, with American Express down 8%, Goldman Sachs down 7%, dragging Dow down 521 points to 48,977; S&P down 0.4% at 6,878; AI stocks under pressure, Nvidia (US: NVDA) down 4%, dragging Nasdaq down 0.9% to 22,668.
See US stock market close:
US stocks last week, for details see: 【US stocks close】Block layoffs due to AI, financial stocks plunge, Dow down 521 points