[US Stock Market] Iran's retaliation expands the Persian Gulf front, oil prices surge back to post-war highs, Dow Jones drops 496 points (updating continuously)

The Iran war enters its sixth day, with conflicts in the Middle East rapidly spreading across the region, including Qatar and Bahrain. Azerbaijan also reports drone attacks, while Tehran claims its navy aircraft attacked a US oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf.

Market sentiment remains cautious, with oil prices fluctuating, currently at $83.96 per barrel, up 3%. Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that passage rules are set by Iran.

US stocks opened lower, with the Dow down 496 points at 48,242, the S&P 500 down 0.3% at 6,844, and the Nasdaq fluctuating, at 22,807.

The US dollar index rises above 99, up 0.3% at 99.06; US long-term bond yields rebound to 4.131%; international gold prices fall, currently at $5,072 per ounce, down 1.3%.

First Eagle Investment Management states that recent risk increases have led insurers to refuse coverage for voyages, causing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to halt over the past few days. Continued disruptions could push oil prices higher, severely impacting the global economy, especially China and other Asian markets heavily reliant on imports through the strait.

The firm notes that even if OPEC+ agrees to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting April, most major oil-producing countries in the alliance depend heavily on exports through the Strait of Hormuz—meaning ongoing shipping disruptions could keep supply tight despite increased output.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【23:10】Iran retaliates, expanding the Persian Gulf front; oil prices surge to post-war highs; Dow drops 496 points

【22:30】Conflict in Iran continues to escalate; Brent crude surpasses $84 per barrel; Dow falls 345 points; Nasdaq down 0.2%

【17:45】Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices fluctuate; Dow futures fall 120 points; Nasdaq futures down 0.1%

【13:06】Dow futures down 139 points at 48,657; S&P futures down 9 points at 6,866; Nasdaq futures down 36 points or 0.1% at 25,092

【13:03】【BTC Trend】Bitcoin briefly surges past $73,000, boosted by regulation and geopolitical safe-haven demand; “Crocodile King” Dario warns of major risks

【12:37】【US Stock Analysis】VIX fear index declines, boosting stocks; market sentiment remains cautious, oil prices still within “manageable” range

【12:29】【Iran Crisis】China reportedly instructs major refineries to suspend diesel and gasoline exports, cancel new contracts, and revoke existing freight agreements

【12:14】【Iran Crisis】Natural gas prices soar; EU may revisit Russia’s natural gas import ban

【11:48】【AI + Chips】Meta plans to develop custom chips for training its AI models

【11:36】【AI + Defense】After being blocked by US government, Anthropic reportedly still negotiating AI agreements with the Department of Defense

【09:57】【US Rate Cuts】Fed Board member Milan: Iran conflict won’t change the need to cut rates; reiterates four rate cuts this year

【09:33】【AI + NVDA】Jensen Huang: OpenAI is already listed by year-end; no longer considering $100 billion investment

【08:47】【AAPL】Apple launches affordable MacBook Neo starting at 4,799 yuan, with four color options and iPhone A18 Pro chip, targeting students and competing with Windows PCs and Chromebooks

【08:15】【AI + AVGO Earnings】Broadcom’s AI revenue doubles; AI chip sales expected to exceed $100 billion next year; shares rise 0.5% after hours

【07:52】【Layoffs】Morgan Stanley reportedly to cut 3%, involving investment banking, trading, and asset management

【06:49】【Iran Crisis】White House: Will take full control of Iranian airspace in the coming hours; Spain agrees to cooperate with US military (ongoing updates)

$1 below for March 4 US stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow up 238 points; Nasdaq up 1.3%; Iran denies indirect talks with US; Fed’s Milan supports continued rate cuts

US Treasury Secretary Yellen states the government will implement measures to stabilize oil transportation in the Persian Gulf, indicating US intention to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran claims it has not blocked.

See US stock close:

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Market risk sentiment eases slightly, with the Dow initially rising by up to 352 points, closing up 238 points at 48,739; S&P 500 up 0.78% at 6,869; Nasdaq up 1.29% at 22,807.

Key stocks include Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang stating that the $1 trillion investment plan in OpenAI may no longer be feasible. Nvidia shares rise 1.66%.

Tesla gains 3.4%, Broadcom reports earnings after market close, shares up 1.2%.

The Fed releases the Beige Book, indicating that seven of twelve districts report slight to moderate economic growth; five districts report flat or declining activity, slightly more than before.

President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Fed’s Stephen Miran believes continued rate cuts are appropriate but considers it premature to comment on the impact of Middle East war on the US economy.

US Defense Secretary Hagelgess states that a US submarine sank an Iranian vessel in international waters—second such attack since WWII.

Oman reports a Maltese-flagged vessel, SAFEEN PRESTIGE, was hit by two missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey states NATO shot down an Iranian missile headed toward Turkish airspace.

The New York Times reports that on the second day of attacks, Iranian intelligence personnel indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss ending the conflict. US officials quoted express skepticism about whether Trump’s administration or Iran is truly ready to seek a de-escalation.

Markets focus on Iran’s successor choices and whether the US and Israel will intensify bombing.

However, sources from Iranian intelligence deny these reports as pure propaganda and psychological warfare during wartime.

Oil prices sharply retreat, with the US dollar index falling 0.28% to 98.78; Bitcoin briefly jumps 9.8% to $74,051.

Under buying interest, spot gold rebounds 2.31%, reaching a high of $5,206.2 per ounce; US long-term bond yields stabilize at 4.101%.

DWS notes Iran’s crude oil production in January 2026 is projected at 3.13 million barrels per day, about 4% of global supply. Short-term supply-demand imbalance could push prices higher with even slight reductions. Future stability depends on OPEC’s ability to fill supply gaps, but Darwei Kung, head of commodities at the firm, states OPEC’s idle capacity is only about half of Iran’s total output.

He warns that if airstrikes cause ships to sink in the Strait of Hormuz, the route could be closed for months, causing long-term supply disruptions. Ground offensives would cause even greater damage to supply. Whether the Strait’s shipping is restricted or fully blocked, both scenarios could severely impact oil supply.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【13:27】Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809

【11:41】【Iran Crisis】Franklin Templeton CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rise another 1% early; analysis suggests conflict unlikely to last long; NYMEX crude hovers between $70-$75; gold expected to retreat after tensions ease

【10:50】【AI + Competition】OpenAI users launch boycott; Anthropic’s Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becomes top app in US App Store

【10:46】【AI + Defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense to ensure AI is not used for surveillance of US citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence units

【10:36】【US Tariffs】US Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can proceed swiftly

【10:10】【AI Frontline】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly plan to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debt

【09:02】【Iran Crisis】Lubi: Plans to curb oil prices; Trump administration reportedly has no current plans to use strategic petroleum reserves

【08:39】【Rate Cuts】Yellen: Iran conflict adds new uncertainties to US monetary policy; energy prices are a key factor

【08:19】【US Economy】JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a “party pooper” for the US economy after “cockroach theory”

【08:08】【AI + NVDA Chips】US considers restricting sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, with a limit of 75,000 units per Chinese company

【07:25】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Four main targets in Iran; US Defense: thousands of missiles fired in two days, including ground-launched missiles from the US (ongoing updates)

$1 below for March 2 US stock market overview====

Monday: Trump announces insurance guarantees and naval escort for oil tankers; Dow down 403 points

On the fourth day of the Iran war, stock markets follow Iran’s military developments. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged by 9.5%, reaching $77.98; Dow fell 1,277 points or 2.6%, low of 47,626; S&P dropped 2.5%, low of 6,710; Nasdaq declined 2.7%, low of 22,124.

See US stock close:

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Market risk sentiment slightly eases, with the Dow closing down only 403 points or 0.8% at 48,501; S&P 500 down 0.9% at 6,816; Nasdaq down 1% at 22,516.

Oil prices rose by 5% at the close, with NYMEX crude at $74.65 and Brent at $81.72.

Trump announced via social platform Truth Social that he has ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very favorable rates for all maritime trade in the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also indicated that if necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz promptly.

“Regardless, the US will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The US dollar index briefly rose 1.3% but settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices remain under pressure, down 4.3% at $5,094.87; silver drops 8% to $82.23.

Manulife notes that global bond yields have recently risen, possibly reflecting market concerns about resurging inflation and future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict persists for more than several weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management states that in the very short term, the Iran war will likely weigh on stocks due to geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil prices. But history shows such negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and commodities.

The firm suggests that if the conflict remains short, oil prices could revert to pre-crisis levels, with overall macroeconomic impact remaining limited. However, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Fed might delay future rate cuts depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict is limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given US energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the US as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.

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