Target Stock Swaps Buy Points, Scores Breakout On Earnings, Outlook

Target stock rallied Tuesday, surging out of a buy zone to clear an entry following its Q4 earnings beat. The retailer expects net sales to grow every quarter in 2026.

Target (TGT) reported a 1.2% increase in adjusted earnings to $2.44 per share, clearing views for $2.16 per share. Total revenue declined 1.5% to $30.45 billion, slightly below estimates for $30.46 billion.

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Comparable sales decreased 2.5% during the quarter, driven by a 3.9% decline in comparable store sales. That was slightly offset by a 1.9% increase in comparable digital sales. Still, Target noted that sales and traffic trends accelerated in the last two months of the quarter.

Michael Fiddelke, who took over as chief executive at the beginning of the month, said that 2025 was a “challenging” year but the retailer positioned itself for “profitable growth in 2026 and beyond.”

“Target saw a healthy, positive sales increase in February, serving as an important milestone on our path back to growth this year,” Fiddelke said.

Target expects 2026 net sales to grow about 2% from 2025, with a small increase in comparable sales. The company expects new store and non-merchandise sales to contribute more than one percentage point of growth.

Target expects net sales to grow in every quarter. The retailer sees 2026 earnings between $7.50 and $8.50 per share on a GAAP and adjusted basis.

Target forecasts Q1 earnings to be flat or up slightly from $1.30 per share adjusted last year, with stronger year-over-year EPS growth through the rest of the year.

FactSet expects 2026 earnings of $7.63 per share on about 1.8% sales growth. Analysts predict Q1 earnings rise to $1.47 per share on 1.7% revenue growth to $24.26 billion.

Target Stock

TGT stock jumped 6.7% Tuesday to exit a saucer base buy zone, following its mid-January breakout. Shares have formed a three-weeks tight-pattern within that base.

The move put the stock above a 118.98 buy point. TGT stock has rallied nearly 24% this year.

You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on X/Twitter @IBD_Harrison.

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