CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's rebound is more like a short-term "relief rally" rather than the start of a new bull market

CryptoSlate News, March 6 — CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno stated that recent Bitcoin gains appear to be driven more by a short-term “relief rally” resulting from easing selling pressure rather than the start of a new bullish cycle. He pointed out that although Bitcoin temporarily rebounded above $73,000, on-chain data still indicates a bear market environment, with its Bitcoin bull score index remaining only at 10 out of 100. Moreno analyzed that spot demand contraction has narrowed from about -136,000 BTC at the beginning of the year to approximately -25,000 BTC, suggesting that selling pressure has eased since early February. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index, which measures US trader buying activity, has shifted from a “deep negative” earlier in February to its highest positive level since October last year, indicating that spot demand has moved from contraction to growth. Traders’ unrealized losses recently hit their highest since July 2022; historically, such levels tend to reduce marginal selling. The selling rate among long-term holders has also decreased from about 904,000 BTC in November last year to approximately 276,000 BTC now, the lowest since June 2025. Moreno pointed out that if Bitcoin continues to rise, the next key resistance levels could be around $79,000 and $90,000. The former corresponds to the lower bound of realized on-chain prices among traders, which has historically acted as resistance in bear markets; the latter is a broader measure of realized prices among traders that previously suppressed rebounds in mid-January.