In-Depth Analysis of the Government Work Report | Top 10 Securities Firms: Seeking Stability in Overall Volume, Progress in Structure, Capital Market Environment Expected to Continue Improving

On March 5th, the 14th National People’s Congress held its fourth session, and Premier Li Qiang delivered the government work report.

The Paper collected opinions from 10 domestic and foreign securities firms. Most believe that by 2026, the government will set the GDP growth target at 4.5%-5%, balancing effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, leaving room for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform.

CICC first pointed out that this year’s economic growth expectation has been adjusted to 4.5%-5%, without lowering the growth requirement. The target is designed to consider both qualitative enhancement and reasonable quantitative growth, emphasizing striving for better results in practical work.

“An economic growth target of 4.5%-5% leaves space for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform.” Shenwan Hongyuan Securities noted that the lower limit of 4.5% is a prerequisite for ensuring employment, stabilizing fiscal revenue, and preventing risks, and it aligns with the overall requirements of the 2035 long-term goal. Meanwhile, the upper limit of 5%, combined with the policy statement of “striving for better results,” clearly maintains an active and proactive policy orientation.

As the starting year of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026, many securities firms unanimously agree that understanding this year’s government work report requires viewing it from the perspective of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

“As the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, this government work report presents a different perspective on economic work, focusing on long-term planning for China’s economy and making greater efforts to promote economic transformation. From this perspective, the demand for ‘quantity’ has been somewhat de-emphasized, while the emphasis on ‘quality’ has become more prominent.” Guolian Minsheng Securities stated.

Huachuang Securities analyzed that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the economy may still be in a phase of accelerated transformation, while a new round of technological revolution and global order changes are accelerating. Under this background, policy judgments are more forward-looking, following the trend of development, and fully supporting the transformation of “new kinetic energy” in accordance with development laws.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities summarized that the report condenses the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan into four main themes: high-quality development, domestic big cycle, common prosperity, and coordinated development and security. The policy push over the next five years will focus on major projects, integrating industrial upgrading, expanding domestic demand, improving people’s livelihoods, green transformation, and security into a more complete development framework.

From a global perspective, UBS Securities stated that this year’s government work report includes “accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new drivers” and “speeding up high-level technological self-reliance” as two of the top ten tasks, emphasizing the cultivation of emerging and future industries, strengthening original innovation and core technology breakthroughs, and promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation.

“Currently, Chinese companies’ innovation vitality in fields like artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and new energy is reshaping global investors’ perception of Chinese assets. Chinese assets are gradually shifting from ‘allocation options’ to ‘strategic necessities,’ providing a historic opportunity for foreign financial institutions with global resource allocation capabilities to participate in China’s high-quality development transformation,” UBS Securities noted.

Overall, the tone remains positive and emphasizes efficiency. The policy package this year will be more proactive, focusing on two main directions: on one hand, reshaping growth quality and structure through new qualitative productivity and domestic demand-led strategies; on the other hand, setting more pragmatic economic targets, emphasizing countercyclical and cross-cycle policy adjustments to address cyclical demand contraction and structural mismatches.

In macro policy, fiscal expenditure remains strong, and monetary policy emphasizes coordination and precision. Fiscal efforts may be front-loaded, focusing on boosting consumption, investing in people, and safeguarding livelihoods. Moderate easing of monetary policy remains a trend but with a steady pace, considering both domestic and international environments and policy synergy effects.

Building a strong domestic market remains a primary task, further emphasizing China’s economic strategy of domestic demand-led growth. The overall policy strength for expanding domestic demand is increased, with highlights including an additional 800 billion yuan in new financial instruments and 100 billion yuan in special funds to promote domestic demand.

Meanwhile, consumption cultivation becomes more diverse. Besides supporting old-for-new exchanges of consumer goods, policies include increasing residents’ income and fostering service consumption. Investment focus is more targeted, prioritizing new qualitative productivity and guiding private investment toward high-tech sectors.

Additionally, efforts to promote technological breakthroughs and structural transformation, deepen capital market reform, and boost social confidence are expected to further energize development.

This year’s two sessions government work report adheres to the overall tone of “steady progress,” with notable adjustments such as raising the economic growth target to 4.5%-5%. This goal balances qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, emphasizing striving for better results without lowering growth expectations.

Policy focus can be summarized in three points: first, emphasizing technological innovation. This year’s work emphasizes “accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new kinetic energy” and “speeding up high-level technological self-reliance,” highlighting the urgency and advantages of transformation. The report also introduces a new concept of creating a new form of intelligent economy, deepening the “AI+” expansion.

Second, leveraging China’s vast domestic market and complete industrial system, which form unique “big country scale advantages.” Economically, this not only reduces fixed costs for AI R&D through large consumer demand but also accelerates technology spillover and penetration across the entire industry chain, creating positive feedback loops of scale economy and increasing returns. Seizing this window period to turn potential scale dividends into lasting international competitiveness is crucial.

Third, supporting consumption through fiscal measures. The report emphasizes implementing more proactive fiscal policies, optimizing expenditure structure, and focusing on supporting consumption, investing in people, and safeguarding livelihoods. The support for consumption is shifting toward service consumption, with initiatives to improve service quality and benefit the public, including supporting pilot programs for middle and primary schools’ spring and autumn holidays in certain regions.

Finally, monetary policy will be more coordinated with fiscal policy and innovative. The government work report proposes issuing 800 billion yuan in policy financial instruments early in the year, a rare move that requires fiscal, monetary, and financial cooperation. It also emphasizes leveraging intangible assets like data elements and intellectual property rights.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities: Further Policy Shift Toward Structural Optimization

In 2026, the policy orientation is “steady progress with quality and efficiency improvement.” Building on the main policy themes of recent years, there is a stronger emphasis on “stability.” The GDP growth target remains at 4.5%-5%, maintaining growth orientation while shifting policy focus further toward structural optimization and risk mitigation.

From the perspective of fiscal and monetary policy coordination, 2026 will continue the proactive macro policy framework, with the fiscal side emphasizing structural optimization and the monetary side focusing on price recovery and transmission efficiency.

The report summarizes the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan into four main themes: high-quality development, domestic big cycle, common prosperity, and coordinated development and security. The policy implementation over the next five years will focus on major projects, integrating industrial upgrading, expanding domestic demand, improving livelihoods, green transformation, and security into a more comprehensive development framework.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: Focus on Institutional Reform and Innovation Development

The “4.5%-5%” economic growth target leaves room for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform. “Reform” and “innovation” are frequently mentioned in this report, indicating that the focus of economic work in 2026 may be on institutional reform and innovative development.

Correspondingly, the lower limit of 4.5% in the growth target ensures employment, fiscal stability, and risk prevention, aligning with the 2035 long-term goals. The upper limit of 5%, combined with the policy of “striving for better results,” underscores an active and proactive policy stance.

The core policy direction is “both policy support and reform efforts.” The report continues the tone from the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing “leveraging the effects of stock and incremental policies, increasing countercyclical and cross-cycle adjustments,” strengthening policy coordination and targeted support, and more strongly emphasizing reform to unblock economic circulation and turn policy effects into endogenous growth drivers. Accelerating the construction of a unified big market, fiscal and tax reforms, and institutional opening are likely to accelerate.

GF Securities: Capital Market Environment Expected to Continue Improving

The overall development goal continues the tone of “steady progress,” with a focus on policy effectiveness and structural optimization. The growth target emphasizes effect, macro policy remains proactive, and policy tools focus on key areas.

Specific tasks focus more on expanding domestic demand and cultivating new drivers. The report explicitly prioritizes “building a strong domestic market,” aiming to release consumption potential and upgrade demand structure. Support measures in cultural tourism, events, health and wellness services are more detailed, aiming to stimulate domestic demand through richer consumption scenarios and optimized institutional supply.

In emerging industries, development paths are clearer. For the first time, “smart economy” is proposed, with accelerated deployment in satellite internet, smart construction, and smart grids. Financial support for technological innovation is strengthened, emphasizing better capital market financing functions, improving listing and M&A channels for key tech enterprises, and increasing direct and equity financing.

Overall, the report continues to release policy dividends, maintaining the long-term guidelines of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. Macroeconomic policies remain stable, domestic demand systems are continuously improved, technological innovation and green transformation accelerate, and policies on real estate, population, and livelihoods are steadily optimized.

As policies are gradually implemented and endogenous growth momentum recovers, market expectations are likely to further improve, economic resilience will strengthen, and the capital market environment is expected to continue its upward trend.

Changjiang Securities: Total Quantity Stability, Structural Progress

2026 marks the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan. From this year’s government work report, the policy approach and framework are becoming clearer: firstly, from the perspective of economic and social development goals, balancing short-term quantitative growth with long-term quality improvement, with macro policies emphasizing both quantity and structure in a coordinated manner.

Secondly, key tasks remain focused on expanding domestic demand, cultivating new drivers, and enhancing technological levels—essential for economic restructuring—while deepening reform and opening up provide institutional support for stable growth and structural adjustment.

In 2026, amid easing external shocks and the gradual unfolding of the new five-year plan, both the economy and policies are expected to feature “total quantity stability and structural progress,” with current efforts laying the foundation for future breakthroughs.

Guolian Minsheng Securities: Emphasis on “Quality” Becomes More Prominent

As the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, this government work report offers a different perspective, focusing more on long-term planning and pushing China’s economic transformation with greater resolve. This shifts the emphasis from “quantity” to “quality.”

Domestically, the growth target for the start year aligns with the 2035 long-term goals, leaving room for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform, laying a solid foundation for better future development.

Notable new changes include: first, the growth target is now in a range, signaling a clear shift from “quantity” to “quality.” Second, the layout of major projects reflects a focus on “quality,” with a significant increase in projects related to new industries, new tracks, and frontier technology, becoming a core support for “improving quality and efficiency.” Third, improving people’s livelihoods to strengthen growth’s sense of gain—compared to last December’s Central Economic Work Conference, the emphasis on “strengthening and improving people’s livelihoods” has moved forward, replacing green development as a priority. Key areas include high-quality employment, education quality, and healthcare.

Under the “quality” emphasis, coordination between monetary and fiscal policies becomes more critical. Strengthening fiscal-monetary synergy involves clarifying their roles: monetary policy mainly guides indirectly and creates a suitable financial environment, while fiscal policy directly stimulates effective demand and activates micro-entities.

This coordination will lead to a macro-control pattern where fiscal policy dominates and monetary policy supports, with precise alignment in total and structure, forming a policy synergy to jointly promote “quality and efficiency” in the macro economy.

Huachuang Securities: Following the Trend

2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. From the target setting, it may be aligned with the plan. Understanding the tone of 2026’s economic work requires viewing it from the perspective of the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Between 2021 and 2025, the economic structure underwent intense transformation, with quantitative changes finally leading to qualitative shifts. The proportions of old and new economies, residents’ financial and real estate assets, growth rates of services and goods, and upstream and downstream sectors all experienced key “crossovers,” meaning the drag of “old kinetic energy” is diminishing, while “new kinetic energy” increasingly supports total economic volume.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan, the economy may still be in a phase of accelerated transformation, with a new round of technological revolution and global order changes accelerating. Under this background, policies are more forward-looking, following the trend of development, and supporting the transformation of “new kinetic energy” with full force, emphasizing green transformation and risk prevention of traditional economies.

This policy arrangement differs slightly from the period of stable structure, which focused more on policy support for weaknesses and shortcomings. While all policies aim to stabilize fluctuations and provide safety nets, the main logic during stable periods versus transformation periods is fundamentally different.

As signals of “qualitative change” from reform and transformation become clearer, the logic of following “new kinetic energy” becomes more evident. The global supply anxiety, leading to midstream manufacturing challenges, can be summarized as: the rare national strength premium, increasingly evident structural transformation, and rising midstream manufacturing.

Kaiyuan Securities: Technological Breakthroughs Are Key

The 2026 government work report continues the policy tone from the December 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, adhering to “steady progress and quality and efficiency improvement,” with comprehensive deployment to consolidate and expand China’s long-term positive trend, laying a solid foundation for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Mainly, the GDP growth target is set at 4.5%-5%, reflecting recognition of increased external risks, geopolitical tensions, and weak global momentum, while reserving policy space for “structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform,” with a focus on “quality”—namely, promoting technological breakthroughs and optimizing supply-demand structure.

Key tasks emphasize technological breakthroughs, with resilient support for domestic demand. The report highlights “accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new kinetic energy” and “speeding up high-level technological self-reliance,” aiming to develop emerging pillar industries like integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and low-altitude economy, and to deepen “AI+” expansion, promoting new intelligent terminals and AI applications. The words “accelerate” and “speed up” underscore the urgency and determination to achieve breakthroughs, focusing on nurturing emerging and future industries and implementing extraordinary measures for “domestication.”

On the demand side, support is expected to remain resilient, with optimized directions. For consumption, demand will be stimulated through targeted actions, emphasizing releasing service consumption potential, increasing subsidies for low-income groups, and improving social security. For investment, efforts will focus on unlocking effective investment potential, supporting key projects, urban renewal, and major projects outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, while establishing long-term mechanisms for private sector participation to invigorate private investment.

UBS Securities: Chinese Assets Transition from “Allocation Option” to “Strategic Necessity”

This year’s government work report includes “accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new kinetic energy” and “speeding up high-level technological self-reliance” among the top ten tasks, emphasizing the development of emerging and future industries, strengthening original innovation and core technology breakthroughs, and promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation.

Innovation arises from technological breakthroughs, grows through industrial upgrading, and depends heavily on effective capital allocation and continuous flow. Currently, Chinese companies’ vitality in AI, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and new energy is reshaping global investors’ perceptions of Chinese assets. Chinese assets are gradually shifting from “allocation options” to “strategic necessities,” providing a historic opportunity for foreign financial institutions with global resource allocation capabilities to participate in China’s high-quality development transformation.

The report also commits to further opening up, expanding two-way investment and cooperation, and reaffirming equal treatment for foreign-invested enterprises. Previously, the 14th Five-Year Plan outlined specific measures for opening the capital market, focusing on improving inclusiveness and adaptability. This signals a continued positive environment for business, reducing institutional transaction costs, and boosting foreign confidence and stability in long-term participation.

With ongoing reform of capital market financing and investment facilitation, cross-border investment and financing will become more convenient, creating broader space for foreign financial institutions to leverage cross-border advantages, innovate products, and coordinate business.

(Article source: The Paper)