Huaxi Securities: Future tariff uncertainties may lead to a new round of export competition

CryptocurrencySniper · 2026-03-06T01:28:43+00:00

Huaxi Securities expects that the removal of IEEPA tariffs will benefit exports. In the short term, China's export tariffs to the US will decrease by 10%, and countries in Southeast Asia and others will also benefit. The export growth rate in the first quarter of 2026 will be affected by factors such as the Spring Festival and base effects, with the annual export growth rate possibly ranging between 3% and 5%, depending on the changes in the 122 tariff policy.

CryptocurrencySniper

2026-03-06 01:28:43

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West China Securities points out that in the short term, the removal of IEEPA tariffs and the decline in tariff levels will create an export window. The reduction of U.S. tariffs is beneficial for the global trade recovery: China’s direct exports to the U.S. will see a 10% tariff reduction, and countries like Southeast Asia will also experience about a 5% decrease in export costs (if the 122 tariff rises to 15%). At the same time, future tariff uncertainties could lead to a new round of export competition.

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【West China Major Asset】How Will Tariff Uncertainties Affect Export Growth?

Investment Highlights:

(1) Forecast of Export Growth and Characteristics in Q1 2026

High-frequency trade indicators and low-frequency export data are not synchronized in time. We apply a moving average to weekly port throughput data to match its cycle with monthly data. The results show that port throughput has a leading indicator effect on exports.

We expect that January’s export growth will be slightly lower at around 4.6%, affected by base effects and export normalization measures. February’s export growth will rebound sharply to about 16% due to the offset of the Spring Festival. March may see a decline due to the lagging effect of the Spring Festival (similar to 2015, 2018, and 2024).

(2) Full-year Export Outlook Under Different Tariff Scenarios

In the short term, the removal of IEEPA tariffs and the decline in tariff levels will create an export window. The reduction of U.S. tariffs benefits global trade recovery: China’s direct exports to the U.S. will see a 10% tariff reduction, and export costs for Southeast Asia and other countries will decrease by about 5% (if the 122 tariff rises to 15%). Meanwhile, tariff uncertainties in the future could trigger a new round of export competition.

In the long term, whether the 122 tariff can be extended is a key variable for export trends:

If the 122 tariff is extended: The overall tariff framework under the Trump administration will largely remain, reducing the urgency for additional tariffs. The new measures under Sections 301 and 232 may be more moderate. We expect exports to remain generally stable in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate of about 3-4%.
If the 122 tariff is not extended: The Trump administration may significantly increase tariffs under Sections 301 and 232 to fill fiscal gaps and maintain existing trade agreements. However, these tariffs cannot fully replace the coverage of previous tariffs. China’s exports to the U.S. will show structural differentiation: exports of general trade goods will accelerate, while exports in key areas covered by Section 232 tariffs may decline due to tariff increases. Overall, exports will benefit from the decline in average tariff levels, and we expect annual growth to exceed 5%.

(3) Summary of Export Forecast Indicators

Port throughput data: Authoritative data from the Ministry of Transport, with strong timeliness and good coverage, making it a leading indicator of trade marginal changes. However, as a pure quantity indicator, it does not include price factors, and weekly data cannot distinguish between import/export and domestic/international trade.

Ship dispatch data: Daily data by country, capable of forecasting exports to major trading partners (especially the U.S.) more accurately. However, coverage is limited, and data quality for developing countries is poor, making it difficult to predict overall export scale.

Freight rate data: Only tracks export freight rates, clearly distinguishing domestic and foreign trade. But freight rates are influenced by both supply and demand, leading to unstable correlations with trade volume, and thus have weaker quantitative reference value.

PMI data: The earliest monthly indicator, with good consistency with export growth trends. However, PMI is heavily influenced by sentiment and seasonal adjustments, which can limit its ability to capture short-term export fluctuations.

Risk Warning: Unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions and industrial policies.

(Source: Yicai)

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