Huatai Securities: Wind power demand in 2025 exceeds expectations; high prosperity in 2026 is expected to continue

Huatai Securities Research Report states that domestic installations may continue to be highly active in 2026, with the contribution of offshore wind expected to increase. Considering that the wind turbine bidding volume in 2025 remains high, combined with nearly 9GW of offshore wind projects in the construction phase but not yet connected to the grid, we forecast that in 2026, domestic new installations will reach 130GW, including 120GW onshore and 10GW offshore. Looking ahead, under the support of new demands such as direct green power connection and old-for-new upgrades, along with the gradual expansion of deep-sea wind, it is expected that wind power installations in China will maintain steady growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

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Huatai | Power & New Energy: 2025 Wind Power Demand Surpassed Expectations, High Prosperity Likely to Continue in 2026

Key Points

2025 Review: Onshore wind installations exceeded expectations, offshore wind deployment accelerated

Onshore wind installations surpassed early-year expectations, offshore wind demand needs to be released. According to CWEA’s “2025 China Wind Power Lifting Capacity Statistics Brief,” China’s new installed capacity in 2025 reached 130.8GW, a 49.9% increase year-over-year, including 125.2GW onshore (+53.4%)—higher than CWEA’s initial forecast of 95-100GW—mainly due to higher wind power mechanism electricity prices and developers favoring renewable projects; offshore wind reached 5.6GW, flat year-over-year and below the early forecast of 10-15GW, mainly due to slower project start-up progress. The trend of larger turbines continued, with the average capacity of newly installed turbines in 2025 at 7.2MW, up 18.3% YoY, including 7.1MW onshore (+20.1%), driven by large-scale base projects, with 24.8% of turbines at 10MW or above, up 19.6 percentage points; offshore turbines averaged 10.1MW, up 1.4%.

Wind turbine market competition continued to improve. In 2025, 10 OEMs achieved new installations, down 3 from the previous year, with a CR7 (top 7 companies) market share of 91.8%, up 1.9 percentage points. Looking at different scenarios, the top-tier concentration for onshore wind increased, with a CR7 of 92.2%, up 1.2 percentage points; offshore wind features a “two giants, many strong players” pattern, with Goldwind adding 2.1GW (37.3% share, +17.7%), mainly from the Three Gorges Dafeng and Guoxin Dafeng projects; Mingyang Smart added 1.4GW (24.4%, down 6.9%), mainly due to slower-than-expected project progress; Sany Heavy Energy achieved breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine shipments, with 0.16GW new installations.

Offshore wind exports accelerated, making overseas production an important option. In 2025, China’s wind turbine exports reached 7.7GW, up 48.9% YoY, with Goldwind and Envision Energy exporting 3.9GW and 2.1GW respectively, accounting for 49.9% and 27.6%. Overseas manufacturing bases became key hubs for wind turbine exports, with Envision Energy’s India plant, Sany Heavy Energy’s India plant, and Goldwind’s Brazil plant producing 2.7GW, 0.2GW, and 0.1GW respectively.

2026 Outlook: Continued High Prosperity in Installations, Favoring OEMs, Offshore Wind, and Core Components

In 2026, domestic wind installations are expected to remain highly active, with offshore wind’s contribution likely to increase. Considering that the bidding volume in 2025 stayed high and nearly 9GW of offshore wind projects are under construction but not yet connected, we forecast that in 2026, China’s new installations will reach 130GW, including 120GW onshore and 10GW offshore. Looking further, supported by new demands such as direct green power connection and old-for-new upgrades, along with the gradual expansion of deep-sea wind, wind power installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to grow steadily.

We remain optimistic about the recovery of OEM profits, offshore wind exports, and the leverage effect in core component manufacturing:

1. OEM Profit Recovery: Increased delivery of onshore wind orders at higher prices, combined with rising offshore and export shares, is expected to support profit recovery; hydrogen and ammonia business could open a second growth curve.

2. Offshore Wind Export: Recent geopolitical conflicts have disrupted energy supply in Europe. Offshore wind, as a high-quality local resource, benefits from government subsidies and support, likely accelerating demand release; Europe’s domestic monopile capacity shortages may lead to continued spillover demand to domestic manufacturers.

3. Core Components Leverage: We estimate tight supply-demand for main shaft bearings, casting main shafts, and other key components, with leading suppliers’ capacity releases supporting sustained performance growth.

Risk factors include: wind power demand falling short of expectations, overseas market expansion underperforming, and increased market competition.

(Source: First Financial)