The market doesn't believe the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal! Goldman Sachs: If the blockade lasts five weeks, oil prices could surge to $100

Goldman Sachs in its latest energy research report pointed out that despite the U.S. government’s recent public commitment to deploying naval forces for escort and attempting to provide insurance support for obstructed oil tankers through policy measures, the oil market still shows a significant lack of confidence in whether these interventions can effectively restore the shipping lanes’ order. Goldman analysts believe that the current key issue lies in the sustainability of commercial shipping rather than purely military escort.

Samantha Dart, co-head of Goldman Sachs’ Global Commodities Research, further analyzed: “Considering the large number of oil tankers, the feasibility of implementing naval escorts itself is questionable.” She also emphasized that the market generally worries whether escort ships are sufficiently capable of defending against drone attacks.

It is understood that U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed multiple plans, including providing insurance guarantees and military escort services, aimed at ensuring the safe passage of oil and natural gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the outbreak of Middle East conflicts over the weekend, this critical global energy transportation route has essentially been blocked, with some Persian Gulf oil-producing countries forced to suspend oil production.

According to Goldman Sachs market research, although U.S. naval intervention could theoretically provide military deterrence, the risk-averse sentiment within the shipping industry has not dissipated. Due to the narrowness of the Strait of Hormuz and the unpredictable nature of geopolitical conflicts, many shipowners and international insurance operators remain cautious about deploying ships into the region after risk assessments.

This psychological defense mechanism has led to a near halt in actual commercial trade flows, even if the shipping lanes are not physically completely blocked. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that without substantial insurance claims and more convincing long-term security guarantees, market confidence in supply recovery will be difficult to rebuild in the short term.

As a result of this confidence crisis, international oil prices are experiencing volatile pricing periods. Goldman Sachs has raised its Q2 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $76 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous forecast of $66, but still well below the current global benchmark Brent crude price of $85, while WTI crude oil forecasts have also been adjusted upward to $71.

Samantha Dart explained that this estimate is based on the assumption that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at an extremely low level for about five days, followed by a gradual recovery period of one month. She also emphasized that if the disruption in the strait extends to five weeks, Brent crude oil prices could rise above $100 per barrel.

From a deeper macro perspective, Goldman Sachs believes that the market’s focus is shifting from “whether there is escort” to “whether the escort is effective.” Even with military guarantees, concerns about seafarer safety, expensive war risk premiums, and potential secondary strikes on oil production facilities all provide solid support for upward oil price risks. Conversely, for oil prices to fall back to the $60 benchmark level, the U.S. escort and insurance measures must produce immediate results, allowing commercial oil tankers to pass freely as they did before the conflict.