CryptoQuant Research Director: Bitcoin Is Just a "Relief Rally," Not a Bull Market Return

Bitcoin surged to $74,000 on Wednesday, showing strong performance, but on-chain data firm CryptoQuant believes this is more of a "relief rally" within a bear market rather than the start of a new bull cycle.

CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno straightforwardly stated that despite Bitcoin's recent rebound, it remains in a bear market. Current fundamentals and technical indicators still point to a bearish environment, and the recent rally is interpreted as a bounce within a bear market.

Analysis suggests that the driving force behind this rebound mainly comes from a reduction in selling pressure. The contraction of spot demand for Bitcoin, from -136,000 BTC at the beginning of the year to -25,000 BTC, indicates that the selling force since early February has been weakening.

Additionally, Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index (an indicator tracking US traders' buying activity) has shifted from "deep negative" levels in early February last year to the "highest positive" since October, indicating a rebound in US investors' willingness to buy.

Fortunately, traders who have not realized losses are inclined to hold their positions, reaching a stage high, and the slowdown in long-term holders' selling has provided some support for the price.

However, Moreno emphasizes that the overall market environment remains in a bear market. The company's Bitcoin Bull Market Score Index is only 10 out of 100, which typically indicates that the fundamentals and technical indicators associated with a bull cycle have not yet recovered.

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin continues to rise, the next key resistance levels could be around $79,000 and $90,000, corresponding to the on-chain actual price lower limit and previous high resistance zone, respectively.

Overall, although Bitcoin has "taken a breather" amid easing selling pressure, it is still premature to declare a bull market restart. The current rebound is more of a technical correction, and the subsequent trend will depend on the sustainability of the rebound momentum and the influx of new capital.

#比特币 # On-chain Data