How to Clarify the Investment Blueprint for the First Year of the 15th Five-Year Plan? Leading Fund Companies Provide Insights

As the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, this year’s government work report not only sets the development goals for the economy and society but also connects short-term tasks with the long-term roadmap, systematically outlining the strategic blueprint for the next five years.

Faced with new macroeconomic environments and development tasks, what new signals are revealed by the multiple “firsts” in this year’s government work report? How will capital markets respond and lay out a new round of investment plans? What are the main investment themes? Several leading fund companies have provided in-depth interpretations of the report, helping investors understand the policy context and investment logic clearly.

Highlights of the report: Practical economic development goals with a long-term vision

In the view of fund companies, the 2026 government work report demonstrates significant “flexibility” and “pragmatism” in setting macroeconomic targets, with more innovative use of policy tools.

First, the approach to economic growth targets has evolved. The report clearly states this year’s GDP growth target is 4.5%-5%, with over 12 million new urban jobs.

Wei Fengchun, Chief Economist at CCB Principal Fund, pointed out that this target is pragmatic and flexible, aligning with the balance of total volume and structure during the transition period. Guoxin Fund also believes that, besides adjusting the GDP growth rate from about 5% in 2025 to a range, other indicators like urban surveyed unemployment rate and consumer price index remain unchanged, reflecting the overall tone of “stability with progress.”

Invesco Great Wall’s research team further analyzed that this is the first time since 2020 that China has adopted a range-based growth target. The lower limit of 4.5% sets a baseline for economic growth, while the emphasis on “striving for better results in practical work” reflects a pragmatic and proactive attitude.

Second, fiscal and monetary policies will work together with continuous innovation in tools. The report proposes to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a deficit ratio of 4%.

Invesco Great Wall noted that this year, the fiscal policy’s highlight is maintaining the deficit ratio at 4% for the second consecutive year, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the general public budget expenditure surpassing 30 trillion yuan for the first time. On bond issuance, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long special national bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds are arranged.

JPMorgan Asset Management believes that continued appropriate fiscal expansion will promote economic stability and growth, with expanding domestic demand and technological innovation still prioritized this year. On monetary policy, it is clear that a moderately relaxed monetary policy will continue.

“We aim to maintain a reasonable and ample total volume, with precise structural guidance, avoiding flood-like stimulus, to facilitate the transmission from broad monetary easing to broad credit easing,” Wei Fengchun commented.

Most notably, this year’s government work report systematically outlines the “14th Five-Year Plan” blueprint and 109 major projects for the first time.

Caitong Fund pointed out that the report is no longer just an “annual task list” but connects the medium- and long-term roadmap with the work of the year. In the “14th Five-Year Plan” goals, many specific livelihood indicators are quantified, such as increasing the average years of education for the working-age population to 11.7 years and raising life expectancy to 80 years, making development directions visible and measurable.

Li Zhan, Chief Economist at China Merchants Fund, interpreted that the “14th Five-Year Plan” features more flexible goal setting, with a focus on innovation and people’s livelihood, and a more prominent emphasis on coordinated development and bottom-line security thinking.

Additionally, new policies to stimulate consumption have many highlights. Invesco Great Wall paid special attention to the report’s first proposal to support conditional promotion of primary and secondary schools’ spring and autumn vacations and to implement paid staggered leave for employees, an innovative measure to activate consumption potential through vacation arrangement optimization. The report also first mentions “strengthening housing security for newly married and newly parent families,” which helps reduce young people’s costs of marriage and childbirth and promotes housing consumption.

HuaXia Fund also noted that this year, a new 100 billion yuan special fund for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand has been established, a significant innovation that will enhance consumers’ sense of gain.

Focus on policy coordination, technological innovation indicators become a key focus for public funds

Regarding key indicators in the government work report, fund companies generally see them as proactive choices prioritizing “quality” and pay close attention to policy synergy effects.

On the economic growth target of 4.5%-5%, Wei Fengchun said this is the core premise for macro-control throughout the year, based on current factor endowments, respecting the potential growth law of the economy, balancing short-term stabilization with medium- and long-term structural optimization.

Li Zhan also pointed out that adopting a range provides more flexibility, aligning with market expectations and guiding all parties to focus on high-quality development, connecting with the overall goal of realizing the 2035 long-term vision.

Caitong Fund expressed a clearer stance, viewing this as a proactive choice of “prioritizing quality,” leaving policy space for cultivating new productive forces, implementing dual controls on carbon emissions, and achieving medium- and long-term modernization goals. It reflects a strategic “speed adjustment” aimed at higher quality and more sustainable growth over a longer horizon.

JPMorgan Asset Management also believes that this target considers the high uncertainty and growth challenges of the overall environment this year, emphasizing that “quality” is more valued than “quantity” in the policy framework.

Regarding policy synergy, fund companies focus heavily on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. Caitong Fund pointed out that monetary policy is increasingly focused on “high-quality easing,” through structural rate cuts and tool expansion, shifting from “quantity easing” to “quality easing”; fiscal policy emphasizes “high efficiency and positivity,” advocating “precise drip irrigation” rather than “flood-like stimulus.”

招商基金 analyzed that this policy mix reflects a shift from short-term stimulus to high-quality, medium- and long-term development, with mechanisms working together to support stable growth and facilitate structural transformation.

Technological innovation indicators are another major focus of interpretation.

Guolian An Fund paid particular attention to the quantitative targets for R&D investment: by 2026, annual growth of over 7% in social R&D expenditure, and during the “14th Five-Year Plan,” increasing the added value of core digital economy industries to 12.5% of GDP.

“This layered approach from national strategy to specific quantitative goals creates a stable and sustained funding and policy environment for the entire tech industry, including semiconductors and chip design,” said Guolian An Fund.

HuaXia Fund emphasized that the report’s call to “accelerate high-level technological self-reliance and strength” indicates that China’s “technology-industry-finance” virtuous cycle is accelerating, with capital markets upgrading from financing hubs to key drivers of innovation.

Fuguo Fund also highlighted the focus on new growth drivers, stating that the government work report maintains a “steady progress” tone—stability reflected in key expectations, fiscal and monetary policies’ continuity, and the cultivation of new momentum as the “progress.”

Fuguo Fund believes that accelerating the development of new growth drivers involves measures such as deploying major technological upgrades, implementing new high-quality manufacturing industry chains, building smart factories and supply chains, promoting industrial innovation projects, encouraging state-owned enterprises to open application scenarios, government investment funds to act as patient capital, and accelerating the commercialization of AI in key industries, fostering new business models and formats.

Public funds’ stance: attracting patient capital to support new productive forces

The government work report also sketches a clear investment mainline for investors. It states the need to deepen reforms in capital market investment and financing, and improve mechanisms for medium- and long-term funds to enter the market. In response, fund companies have expressed their commitment to strengthening research and investment capabilities, guiding patient capital to make long-term allocations, and supporting the growth of technological innovation enterprises while safeguarding residents’ wealth.

“Continuously enhancing core investment and research capabilities, improving product systems suitable for medium- and long-term funds, attracting more patient capital through public funds, and guiding financial resources toward technological innovation,” said E Fund.

HuaXia Fund believes that medium- and long-term funds are the ballast for stable and healthy capital markets. Improving entry mechanisms helps optimize capital supply and structure, creating a virtuous cycle of value preservation and appreciation for long-term funds and high-quality economic development. Regarding implementation, HuaXia emphasizes adhering to the principle that “research creates value,” building an investment and research system aligned with new productive forces, and paying more attention to long-term growth factors such as technological barriers and R&D investment.

Wei Fengchun suggested improving long-term capital entry and assessment systems, guiding patient capital to make long-term allocations, and ensuring investor protection throughout the process. Guolian An Fund also pointed out that the clear call for government investment funds to lead in patient capital will encourage long-term funds to more actively support technological innovation, providing stable capital support for long-cycle, high-investment hard-tech enterprises.

In specific investment layouts, fund companies have outlined clear main lines around “new quality productivity.”

Wei Fengchun proposed three main investment themes: 1) new quality productivity and technological independence, focusing on AI and high-end manufacturing; 2) domestic demand and livelihood consumption, favoring service consumption and healthcare; 3) cyclical and safe assets, focusing on energy and high-dividend stocks.

Caitong Fund echoed this view, suggesting focus on three long-term main lines: the new quality productivity core, centered on high-tech manufacturing; the digital China line, centered on digital economy; and the green low-carbon line driven by “dual carbon” targets. Corresponding sectors may include computing power and industrial software, clean energy and new power systems, high-end equipment and industrial control, aerospace and low-altitude economy.

For the hard-tech sector, Guolian An Fund provided more specific tracks. It emphasized the deepening of “AI+” initiatives and leveraging the new national system to advance key core technologies. This indicates that semiconductors and chips, especially those serving AI training and inference, are key areas of national resource focus, with huge and continuously growing market demand.

Meanwhile, benefiting from the overall policy environment, the Hong Kong stock market will also gain new opportunities to attract quality tech assets for listing. Invesco Great Wall recommends focusing on policy-supported areas such as AI, green development-related new infrastructure projects, AI+ applications, and low-cost domestic demand consumption, especially service-related industries.