Oil and gas thematic funds surge to daily limit-ups, beware of large premiums

The “Big Three” oil companies in China’s A-shares all hit the daily limit, and the oil and gas sector experienced a surge in涨停.

Notably, international oil prices surged sharply today, with Brent crude oil prices rising nearly 13% at one point, reaching around $82 per barrel.

Domestic futures market saw the energy and chemical sector perform the best. By the close, 12 futures contracts, including crude oil, high-sulfur fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, methanol, liquefied gas, propylene, polypropylene, the average monthly price of polypropylene, plastics, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, and the European line shipping index, all hit the涨停.

The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that recent international developments are complex and volatile, with large fluctuations in commodities such as pure benzene, liquefied petroleum gas, ethylene glycol, styrene, polypropylene, and linear low-density polyethylene. Members are advised to monitor market dynamics, strengthen risk management, and guide market participants to trade rationally and in compliance.

On the same day, multiple oil-related LOF funds hit涨停. Oil funds LOF (160416), E Fund Crude Oil LOF (161129), Southern Oil LOF (501018), and Harvest Crude Oil LOF (160723) all surged to the涨停.

It is worth noting that these funds recently issued risk warning notices about premium risks, with trading prices in the secondary market showing significant premiums.

Additionally, 10 oil and gas-themed ETFs led the market in gains. Among them, the GF National Oil & Gas ETF rose 9.60% in half a day, leading similar products; Yinhua Oil & Gas ETF, Harvest S&P Oil & Gas ETF, Huatai-PineBridge Oil & Gas ETF, and Bosera Oil & Gas ETF all gained over 8%.

Today, COMEX gold futures briefly broke through the $5,400 mark. In the afternoon, spot gold also surpassed $5,400.

Guosheng Futures stated that escalating geopolitical conflicts strengthen gold’s safe-haven properties, and the trend remains unchanged. Funds continue to flow into gold ETFs, with holdings increasing by 22.58 tons over the past week, indicating clear safe-haven demand.

According to Yinde Futures, the ongoing Middle East conflict reinforces the main theme of precious metals trading. This conflict has its particularity and complexity, making its impact on precious metals difficult to compare with past experiences. However, in the medium to long term, it is clear that this conflict is not the end of de-globalization, and similar events will continue to promote and reinforce narratives around order reconstruction. Regarding precious metal trends, even if short-term gains are seen due to safe-haven sentiment and then retreat, there is unlikely to be significant downside before the situation cools down.

Regarding the strong performance of energy and commodities today, Tian Yue, senior strategist at China Merchants Fund, said that from a global market perspective, energy and commodities are expected to first seek safe-haven and then ease, but long-term risks remain. In the short term, geopolitical risk premiums are evident, and market volatility may increase. The market’s previous pricing of geopolitical risks was not entirely unexpected; Brent crude oil rose from around $65 per barrel in mid to late February to about $73, implying some conflict risk premium. Long-term, it still depends on supply-demand fundamentals, national oil production capacity, and potential. The scale and duration of this conflict are likely to surpass the previous one, possibly extending the market’s uncertainty window.

How to select oil and gas assets? China International Capital Corporation’s oil and gas research report indicates that as energy investment opportunities in conflict zones gradually return, international oil companies may gain new expansion opportunities to address the current issue of insufficient production growth after U.S. shale oil entered a steady production phase. This could create potential space for Chinese oil service engineering companies with international operations.

Dongxing Securities believes that geopolitical premiums still dominate short-term oil price trends. Industry indices outperform the market benchmark, with the current industry average P/E ratio at 16.09. Although market capitalization is relatively small, there is some growth potential. Investment logic focuses on targets with high dividends and high growth.

From the domestic market perspective, Tian Yue emphasized that the A-share market remains in a slow bull pattern, and the RMB has been gradually appreciating since early 2025. Previously, global funds were overweight U.S. stocks, but this year, the U.S. tech sector has shown weak growth. Under the current RMB appreciation trend, the attractiveness of Chinese equities may further increase.

(Dalian Commodity Exchange, Wind data, China International Capital Corporation, Dongxing Securities, Guosheng Futures, Yide Futures, China Merchants Fund)

Editor: Xu Nannan