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The United States attacking Iran will lead to two possible outcomes! First, if the U.S. ultimately subdues Iran, then America's prestige will be thoroughly established. Who would dare to challenge Washington afterward? But the problem is, this "subduing" is far more difficult than climbing to the sky.
Let's set aside other factors and look at Iran's basic situation. The country has a land area of 1.645 million square kilometers and a population approaching 90 million. This scale is completely different from Iraq and Afghanistan when the U.S. fought those wars.
Back then, Iraq was only about 400,000 square kilometers with a population of over 20 million, and Afghanistan was 650,000 square kilometers with over 30 million people. The U.S. spent 8 years fighting Iraq and 20 years in Afghanistan, finally withdrawing in disgrace without gaining any real benefits.
Now, the U.S. economy already faces many issues—high debt levels, widespread war weariness among the public. If a large-scale war with Iran were to be launched, military spending would be astronomical, further worsening the U.S. economy. Domestic opposition would grow even louder, and those in power simply couldn't withstand that pressure.
More importantly, Iran is not a soft target. It has real counterattack capabilities. Iran's military strength is not weak, especially its missile forces, which have long-range, high-precision capabilities capable of covering U.S. military bases in the Middle East and even reaching Israel. Once war breaks out, Iran would likely target these strategic sites first, and U.S. troops and allies in the Middle East would suffer.
Additionally, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil transportation. If Iran blockades this strait, global oil prices would spike immediately, impacting the entire world economy. The U.S. would also face inflationary pressures from rising oil prices—something that could be deadly for America.
As for international support, few countries would back the U.S. in launching a war at will. The U.S. didn't receive much genuine international backing during its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now, with Iran, more countries would oppose it.
Russia and China have explicitly advocated for resolving disputes peacefully and oppose military intervention. Many EU countries, due to energy concerns, are hesitant to follow the U.S. blindly. Without international support, the U.S. would be fighting alone, facing diplomatic isolation and mounting pressure.
Moreover, "subduing" a country is not something that can be achieved solely through military force. Iraq and Afghanistan are prime examples—U.S. forces overthrew the existing regimes but failed to establish stable order, instead plunging both countries into prolonged chaos and poverty.
Iran has a deep historical and national cohesion, with strong patriotic sentiments and a determined resistance to foreign invasion. Even if the U.S. temporarily defeats Iran's regular army, it won't conquer the hearts and minds of the Iranian people.
Eventually, the U.S. would be caught in endless guerrilla warfare and resistance, with daily casualties. Such a war of attrition is beyond America's capacity, and in the end, it would likely withdraw in disgrace, just like in Afghanistan.
The U.S. strategic focus has shifted away from the Middle East and toward the Asia-Pacific region. Getting bogged down in a war with Iran would only cause the U.S. to lose sight of other priorities, disrupting its global strategic layout.
Furthermore, U.S. allies are not fools—they wouldn't truly jump into this fire with the U.S. at their side. At most, they'd offer verbal support; when it comes to sending troops or funding, they'd definitely stay far away. The U.S. would have to bear all the pressure alone.
In reality, the U.S. knows that attacking Iran is not worth the risk. Currently, it mainly relies on sanctions and small-scale military deterrence. If a large-scale war were to be launched, the U.S. would have to carefully weigh the consequences.
Claims that the U.S. can subdue Iran and establish prestige are simply naive and fail to see the reality. The U.S. can't even handle Iraq and Afghanistan properly, yet it expects to deal with a larger, more powerful Iran? That's wishful thinking.
In conclusion, attacking Iran with the aim of subduing it is fundamentally impossible. It would only lead to greater trouble for the U.S., drain more national resources, and further diminish its international reputation.
True prestige is not built through military force but through respecting other nations' sovereignty and resolving disputes peacefully. If the U.S. really dares to take military action against Iran, it would only be shooting itself in the foot.