Don’t Overreact: Tariffs Overturned, but Fundamentals Still Rule

Just as we made limited changes to our long-term intrinsic valuations following President Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement in April 2025, we suspect we will make few changes after the Supreme Court ruled on Friday to strike down the president’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose those tariffs.

Last year, we expected corporations would adjust their supply chains and that the initial tariff rates would be reduced following new trade negotiations. As such, current valuations do not need to be adjusted following the court’s decision.

Yogi Berra once famously said, “It ain’t over till it’s over” … and it ain’t over yet. We suspect the Trump administration will look to other alternative legal frameworks to reimplement and/or roll out new tariffs.

From a broad market perspective, the question becomes: How meaningful is this ruling for future earnings growth?

To address this, let’s take a look at what has happened over the past year while tariffs were either in place (or paused) while the US was negotiating new trade terms and investment requirements.

From an economic point of view, real US gross domestic product in 2025 was much stronger than economists anticipated. Annualized real GDP came in at 3.0% in the second quarter, 4.4% in the third quarter, and 1.4% in the fourth quarter (the government shutdown lowered this reading by approximately 1%). The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the first quarter of 2026 is 3.1%.

While inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target, it has remained relatively range-bound and never soared as economists feared. For example, on a year-over-year basis, the Consumer Price Index was 2.4% in March 2025 and as high as 3.0% in September 2025. The CPI most recently came in at 2.4% in January 2026.

In my opinion, this indicates that there have been much bigger factors at play over the past year that have had much greater economic impact than tariffs. For example, the surge in spending from the artificial intelligence buildout boom and its related economic multiplier effect, the boost in net exports, and consumer spending have remained higher than economists expected. Each of these looks to continue to positively support the economy in 2026.

Ignore the Noise, Focus on Fundamentals and Valuations

For all the headlines surrounding this ruling, from an investor’s point of view, as always, it still comes down to fundamentals and valuations. Generally, one would expect that the ruling striking down tariffs is generally positive for importers but negative for companies with domestic production or supply chains that compete against imports. The ruling could also result in a slowing or outright halt in reshoring manufacturing. Yet, several examples show these generalities are overwhelmed by idiosyncratic fundamental issues or stock valuations.

For example, Nike’s NKE stock price initially popped after ruling, but then quickly gave up those gains. Fundamentally, Nike’s ability to ward off competitive threats from On Cloud, Hoka, and other brands that have been taking market share is more meaningful to the intrinsic value of the company.

The ruling should be good news for Walmart WMT, one of the largest, if not the largest, importers in the US. Yet, the stock was down on the day. In this case, investors are more concerned with the high valuation already priced into the stock and the company’s ability to meet the growth expectations that the valuation requires.

Lastly, Apple AAPL stock was hit especially hard following the tariff announcement in April, yet the stock only edged up slightly after Friday’s ruling. The market’s concern regarding Apple’s ability to incorporate AI into its products outweighs the benefit it would see from lower tariffs on imported devices.

Buckle Up, We Expect More Volatility Ahead

In our 2026 Market Outlook, we cautioned investors about the risks that would likely lead to greater volatility throughout the year. Among those risks were the reemergence of trade and tariff negotiations. For our latest stock market valuations broken down by sector, style, and capitalization, as well as our recommendation for portfolio positioning in 2026, see US Stock Market Outlook: Where We See Investing Opportunities in February.