U.S. Elections 2028: Poll Data Projects New Leaders Without Trump

As the 2028 election approaches, U.S. election polls are beginning to reveal a transformed landscape. The constitutional prohibition on Donald Trump running again opens an unprecedented scenario for both Republicans and Democrats, where new leaders compete for the presidential nomination. With Trump out of the race, his electoral support shifts to other figures within the Republican Party, while Democrats debate among their own candidates without Joe Biden’s presidential backing.

Republican Dominance: JD Vance Emerges as Unquestioned Favorite in the Polls

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance has established a leading position. The 2026 presidential election polls show an extraordinary gap between Vance and his competitors.

Nationwide, the RealClear Polling average places the current vice president with a +28-point lead over other Republican hopefuls. In New Hampshire, where early primaries are traditionally held, Vance’s dominance is even more pronounced: he averages 55% support, creating a 47-point gap over his closest rival.

The rest of the Republican candidates remain well behind in New Hampshire polls:

• Marco Rubio: 8%
• Nikki Haley: 6.5%
• Ron DeSantis: 6.5%
• Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
• Ted Cruz: 0.5%

Other figures surveyed include Rand Paul (about 5%), Vivek Ramaswamy (between 3% and 4%), Tim Scott (between 1% and 3%), and Josh Hawley (around 1%).

Open Competition in the Democratic Party: Harris and Newsom Lead in Polls

On the Democratic side, the landscape is more fragmented. The 2028 election surveys among Democratic voters show a more balanced contest among candidates. According to consolidated data from February 2026, former President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom are in the top positions, though with varying margins.

The RealClear Polling aggregator reports the following average percentages:

• Kamala Harris: leads with 28.3% of voter intention
• Gavin Newsom: second with 20.7%

However, individual polls show significant fluctuations. The Yahoo/YouGov survey from February 2026 places Newsom slightly ahead with 19%, compared to 18% for Harris among registered Democratic voters. Echelon Insights also shows Newsom with a lead of up to six points over Harris.

Behind the top two, a group of candidates with respectable support includes:

• Pete Buttigieg: an average of 9.3% in RCP and 13% in Yahoo/YouGov
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8.1% average and 12% in individual surveys
• Mark Kelly: 5.8% average and 9% in polls
• Josh Shapiro: tied with Kelly at 5.8%
• JB Pritzker: 4.6% average
• Cory Booker: 3.8%
• Andy Beshear: 2.3%
• Gretchen Whitmer: 1.8%

A notable fact: 19% of surveyed Democrats still express uncertainty about their preferences for 2028, according to Yahoo/YouGov data.

Legal Barrier: Why Trump Will Not Run in the 2028 Election Polls

The reason Donald Trump will not appear in any 2028 presidential candidate surveys is not political but constitutional. The mechanism is rooted in the Twenty-Second Amendment of the Constitution, ratified in 1951, which explicitly states: “No person shall be elected to the office of President more than twice.”

Trump took office on January 20, 2017, and completed his first term in 2021 after losing to Joe Biden. He then won again in November 2024, defeating Kamala Harris, and began his second term on January 20, 2025, which is ongoing.

This two-term limit was specifically designed to prevent leaders like Franklin D. Roosevelt, who served four consecutive terms, from remaining in power indefinitely. Changing this rule would require a new constitutional amendment, a process that demands two-thirds majority approval in both houses of Congress and ratification by the states, making it an almost insurmountable barrier.

Therefore, while Harris and Newsom compete for the Democratic lead and Vance consolidates his dominance among Republicans, Trump remains permanently absent from all 2028 presidential polls.