Milei's resistance in the polls: why does the libertarian vote prevail amid the economic crisis?

A troubling question for political analysts: when six out of ten Argentinians fear for their economic future, how does a government maintain its lead in the polls? The consulting firm Proyección provided clues in its latest study, conducted between February 1 and 7, 2026. The data reveal a deep gap between people’s financial reality and their electoral intentions: while economic pessimism intensifies, Milei and his coalition retain their core voters, comfortably leading in political preference polls.

The frightening numbers: unchecked economic decline in the polls

The diagnosis of discontent is clear. When asked about the state of family finances in six months, 59.7% of respondents answered negatively. Within this group, 35.7% believe it will be “just as bad” as now, while 24% expect further deterioration. Optimism barely reaches 40.3%, showing a systematic loss of hope among the population.

This pessimism doesn’t come out of nowhere. The survey shows that 70.7% of citizens say their economic situation worsened in recent months, with only 10.1% reporting concrete improvements. Concerns about “low income” rose to 43.9%, nearly matching insecurity (46.5%) and pushing inflation to third place among worries.

Household financial strain goes beyond perceptions. More than half of Argentinians rely on various financing mechanisms to cover basic expenses each month: 16.1% borrow money from acquaintances, 12.8% finance consumption through credit cards or installments, and 10.4% access loans via digital wallets. These figures reveal an economic survival that depends increasingly on precarious channels.

La Libertad Avanza leads in voting intention despite growing anxiety

Here emerges the paradox that analysts haven’t fully resolved. Despite the recession climate, polls show La Libertad Avanza would win with 43.6% of the votes, establishing itself as the leading minority and nearing the numbers needed for a first-round victory. This result reaffirms the strength of libertarian support, challenging traditional political models where “pocketbook votes” are usually decisive.

Polarization is solidified. The opposition coalition Fuerza Patria retains 35.9% support, while the political center has almost disappeared: PRO barely reaches 3.8%, suggesting its electorate has been almost entirely absorbed by the ruling coalition. Provincial forces and the left remain on marginal levels.

Who supports Milei: voter segmentation during a recession

The contradiction between economic crisis and political support is partly explained by expectations segmentation. The Economic Outlook Index (IPE) created by Proyección shows that optimism is significantly higher among La Libertad Avanza voters, men, and the young segment (ages 16 to 34). These groups seem to maintain an “ideological trust vote” that transcends immediate circumstances.

Conversely, pessimism is more pronounced among women, those over 35, and residents of Greater Buenos Aires. This electoral geography shows how the crisis hits differently depending on demographic profile, but without translating into a widespread punishment in Milei’s voting intention polls.

Cracks in governance: warning signs in government evaluation

However, new surveys reveal growing cracks in the government’s image. For the first time in months, the evaluation shows a near tie with a negative trend: 47.6% rate the management as “bad” or “very bad,” compared to 44.9% who see it as positive. When asked about the country’s direction, 48.8% think it is “wrong” or “very wrong,” surpassing the 41.9% who approve of the current course.

A relevant data point emerges regarding management capacity. Despite criticisms, 44.9% of respondents assign the government “a lot” or “some” capacity to solve the country’s problems, a figure that nearly matches its voting intention. This coincidence suggests that libertarian support is more based on perceptions of competence than immediate satisfaction with results.

The upcoming challenge: turning votes into tangible economic improvements

The challenge for the ruling party ahead of 2027 will be to convert that electoral support into a tangible economic reality before the pessimism of the 60% who foresee a bleak future erodes the political base that still supports it. Polls show Milei maintains his strength in voting intention, but the financial strain signals unmistakable exhaustion that cannot be ignored indefinitely. The “honeymoon” phase of electoral support persists for now, but time is working against them if they fail to turn expectations into concrete improvements.