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Is the prediction market going to be legalized? The financial world might be about to gain a new species
If you ask what the financial markets are best at, the answer might be:
Pricing the future.
Stock companies price future profits.
Bonds price future interest rates.
Futures price future commodity prices.
And prediction markets are another interesting attempt:
Directly pricing the probability of events.
Recently, US regulators have been accelerating legislation on prediction markets and crypto markets.
Meanwhile, Wall Street funds are also increasing their Bitcoin allocations.
Blackstone’s 17,600 BTC is a typical example.
If these two trends develop simultaneously, the future financial market might see a new ecosystem:
Traditional financial assets
Digital assets
Prediction markets
All three coexist.
In this structure, markets not only trade value but also trade information.
For example:
Election results
Economic policies
Technological breakthroughs
All of these events could be priced by the market.
It sounds like science fiction, but financial history has always been expanding the boundaries of trading.
And blockchain technology makes this model even more feasible.#深度创作营