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[US Stock Market Close] Trump: The war is almost over, oil prices plummeted immediately, Dow Jones surged 239 points (updating continuously)
President Trump of the United States stated in an interview with foreign media that the war is almost over. The conflict has been very comprehensive: Iran has no navy, no communications, and no air force. Their missiles are now just sporadic remnants. Their drones have been destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.
Following the interview, oil prices plummeted, and U.S. stocks turned higher. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.20, and New York crude dropped 3.4% to $88.
The Dow initially fell 886 points, reaching a low of 46,615. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, hitting 6,636, and the Nasdaq also fell 1.5%, down to 22,061.
By the close, the Dow recovered 239 points to finish at 47,740, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,795, and the Nasdaq increased 1.4% to 22,695.
Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. In response, G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves through the International Energy Agency (IEA) to counter the spike in oil prices following the Gulf conflict.
French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said that the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the US-Israel war.
After the G7 finance ministers’ virtual meeting in Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is that, if necessary, we will use all means to stabilize the market, including possibly releasing reserves.” He noted that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, there are no supply issues in Europe or the US.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated, “The IEA has called on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He added that the OECD, the World Bank, and the IMF’s senior officials are also participating in the discussions. The G7 will soon hold a meeting of energy ministers to discuss further actions.
As of 2022, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under the control of OECD governments are estimated to exceed 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. These government-controlled stocks must be sufficient to support at least three months of normal consumption.
Market stabilized, with the US dollar index down 0.1% at 98.877, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.107%.
Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138, while silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.
The US military continues to demonstrate its strength. According to BBC reports, US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are gathered at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK. Three B-52 bombers landed in one day, marking the first appearance of B-52s in the UK since the conflict erupted.
The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” American heavy bomber, signaling that large-scale air campaigns are imminent or that the current conflict may escalate sharply. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting sustained, destructive strikes on infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.
Additionally, US stock markets have entered daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 PM Hong Kong time.
Swiss bank UBS noted that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits and experiencing volatile swings. This seems mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supplies could face shutdowns of up to 75%.
The bank said it will continue to closely monitor the situation. Currently, there is no significant damage to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. Solutions to ensure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Amid the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the basic expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page
Market Trends:
【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%. Oil surges over 10%, breaking $100. Markets open one hour earlier for daylight saving time.
【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points, at 46,511; S&P 500 futures down 130 points, at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points, or 2.2%, at 24,127.
【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets. Senior strategist Yardeni: The probability of a market crash in US stocks by year-end has increased to 35%.
【11:15】【700】Tencent reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. through a multi-billion dollar exploration deal with Paramount.
【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices break $100, with NY crude soaring 30%. Major Middle Eastern oil producers cut output.
【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge, dragging down Asia-Pacific markets. “Black Monday” in Japan and South Korea, both down over 7%. South Korea reportedly considers implementing a cap on oil prices.
【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle Eastern oil capacity expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend.
【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100. “I won’t reduce energy stocks in the next two or three years.”
【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000. Oil price surge heightens inflation concerns.
【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins. Oil rises 20%, surpassing $111. Trump: Small cost. Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating constantly).
【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and US inflation data. US markets open one hour early for daylight saving time.
【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected US jobs data caused a major sell-off last Friday. Dow once fell 945 points to 47,009; the VIX volatility index surged 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points, S&P 500 fell 1.33%, Nasdaq dropped 1.59%.
See US stocks closing:
Last week’s US stock movements, details at: 【US Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln” again; Brent surpasses $92; poor employment data drags Dow down 453 points; Nasdaq drops 1.6%.