[US Stock Market Close] Dow Jones drops 34 points White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices plunge over 11%

Market attention is on the latest developments in the Middle East situation, with oil prices fluctuating and remaining relatively soft, while the Dow turns lower.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright posted on social media Tuesday that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was deleted shortly after. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that the U.S. did not escort any ships.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded, claiming that the so-called U.S. military escort of the tanker is pure falsehood, and any actions by the U.S. and its allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

Markets are hopeful for an end to the U.S.-Iran conflict. NYMEX crude settled at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent crude also fell 11.28%, closing at $87.8.

The Dow initially rose 479 points but gave back 34 points to close at 47,706. The S&P 500 declined 0.21%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.01%. The Golden Dragon Index, reflecting Chinese concept stocks, rose 1.96%.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Tuesday was the most intense day of military action against Iran so far, with the most fighters and bombers deployed to strike Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine said the U.S. is targeting Iranian patrol boats.

Hegseth stated this was a precise, targeted strike rather than a prolonged “nation-building” campaign.

Following drone attacks on UAE refineries, operations have been suspended. On Tuesday, energy ministers from seven countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) held a meeting to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC citing sources reports the U.S. considers a joint release of 300-400 million barrels of oil as appropriate.

Amazon is returning to the bond market. Bloomberg reports the company plans to issue up to 11 tranches, with maturities from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche, maturing in 2076, is preliminarily priced about 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.3%, currently at 98.93; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain steady at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9%, trading at $5,206 per ounce.

In focus stocks, memory chips continued to rebound. Micron (MU) rose 3.5%, back above $400; SanDisk (SNDK) gained 5%.

Oracle (ORCL) will report earnings after market close.

Adam Hetts, Global Multi-Asset Team Lead and Portfolio Manager at J.P. Morgan, and Oliver Blackbourn, Portfolio Manager, said that supply disruptions, rising oil and natural gas prices, and lack of clear cooling pathways are increasing inflation risks and causing greater market volatility. If the conflict persists, economic pressures could deepen; however, U.S. political considerations might quickly frame the situation as a “victory” or rapid resolution, leaving asset outlooks uncertain.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. Details on the next page.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; Oil retraces 8%

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; Oil retraces 7%; Oracle (ORCL) earnings after close

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces reliance on China; India iPhone production now accounts for 25%

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic files lawsuit demanding U.S. DoD rescind blacklisting

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says the war will end soon; gold stabilizes and rebounds

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues further warnings; Trump at press conference: Iran war will end soon but no timeline promised (updating)

【08:26】【AI + NVIDIA】NVIDIA reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device release to wait for new Siri

$1 below for March 9 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump: War nearly over; oil prices plunge; Dow surges 239 points

U.S. President Trump told foreign media that the war is almost over, describing it as very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force, and only a few missiles left. Their drones have been destroyed everywhere, including their manufacturing plants.

See U.S. stock close:

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“Look, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. “The U.S. can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran with consequences if they obstruct the waterway. “They’ve shot all they can shoot; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be their end… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, claiming ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “We will not show mercy.”

Following the statement, oil prices plummeted, and U.S. stocks rose. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2; NYMEX crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially fell 886 points to a low of 46,615; the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 6,636; Nasdaq fell 1.5% to 22,061.

But by close, the Dow recovered 239 points to 47,740; the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,795; Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 22,695.

Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to counter the spike in oil prices after the Gulf conflict.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the U.S.-Israel conflict.

After the Brussels G7 finance ministers’ online meeting, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market if needed, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, there are no supply issues in Europe or the U.S.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also mentioned that the OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a ministerial meeting to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under government control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, ensuring at least three months of supply under normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; the U.S. dollar index drops 0.1% to 98.877; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fall to 4.107%.

Gold’s decline narrows to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rises 2.5%, at $86.63.

U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict erupted.

B-52s are typical “forward-deployed” aircraft, signaling large-scale air campaigns or imminent escalation. As heavily armed “old cows,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, inflicting sustained, destructive strikes on infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank says it will continue to monitor the situation closely. Currently, there is no significant damage to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. A solution to ensure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. Details on the next page.

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Market Trends:

【18:20】Dow futures down 492 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil surges over 10%, breaking $100; markets open one hour earlier for daylight saving time

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points, at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points, at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2%, at 24,127

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of a market crash before year-end increases to 35%

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly planning to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, investing hundreds of millions USD

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge past $100, with NYMEX crude up 30%; other major Middle Eastern oil producers cut output

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific markets; “Black Monday” in Japan and Korea, both down over 7%; South Korea reportedly considers implementing oil price caps

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern oil capacity will decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may hit $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in the next two or three years”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge intensifies inflation concerns

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil prices up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: small cost; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating)

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data; markets open one hour earlier

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected U.S. employment data caused a major sell-off last Friday, with the Dow dropping 945 points to 47,009; the VIX volatility index surged 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points; S&P down 1.33%; Nasdaq down 1.59%.

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U.S. stocks last week, for details see: 【U.S. Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln”; Brent surpasses $92; weak jobs report causes Dow to fall 453 points; Nasdaq down 1.6%

Financial Hot Talk

Middle East conflict threatens oil supply—will prices break $100? Could this impact the global economy?