Trump’s Impeachment Odds Reach Record High, Shows Kalshi

FomoAnxiety · 2026-03-10T21:18:17+00:00

President Trump's odds of being impeached have risen to over 70% due to disapproval of the Iran war, according to Kalshi data. However, the likelihood of removal remains low, with a 22.7% chance of both impeachment and removal before January 2029.

FomoAnxiety

2026-03-10 21:18:17

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The odds of President Trump being impeached by January 1, 2028 climbed above 70% for the first time this week, data from prediction platform Kalshi shows. The odds have climbed higher over the past month amid growing disapproval of the war in Iran.

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Trump was first impeached in 2019 by the U.S. House on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, and then again in 2021 for incitement of insurrection following the January 6 Capitol attack.

Trump Faces High Impeachment Odds, Low Risk of Removal, Shows Kalshi Odds

However, being impeached does not automatically remove a sitting president from office. A removal only occurs if two-thirds of the Senate votes to convict the president. Both of Trump’s previous impeachments ended with Senate acquittals.

Trump’s Kalshi odds of being both impeached and removed from office before the end of his second term on January 20, 2029 sit at 22.7% and have traded in a range between 20% and 24% since the beginning of the year.

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