[US Stock Market Close] White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz Dow Jones drops 34 points Oil prices sharply narrow their decline

Market attention is focused on the latest developments in the Middle East situation, with oil prices fluctuating and remaining weak, and the Dow turning lower. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media on Tuesday that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was deleted shortly after. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that the U.S. did not escort any ships.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded, claiming that the so-called U.S. military escort of the tanker is a complete lie. Any actions by the U.S. and its allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

The market hopes for an end to the U.S.-Iran war. NYMEX crude oil closed Tuesday at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent crude also fell 11.28%, closing at $87.8.

The Dow initially rose 479 points but gave back 34 points to close at 47,706. The S&P 500 fell 0.21%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.01%, with the China concept stock index, the Golden Dragon Index, rising 1.96%.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Tuesday was the most intense day of military action against Iran so far, with the most fighter jets and bombers deployed to strike Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine said the U.S. is targeting Iranian frigates.

Hegseth stated this was a precise, targeted strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” war of attrition.

UAE oil refinery operations have been suspended after a drone attack. On Tuesday, seven countries’ energy ministers (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US) held a meeting to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC quoted sources saying the U.S. considers a joint release of 300 to 400 million barrels of oil as appropriate.

Amazon is returning to the bond market. Bloomberg reported that the company plans to issue up to 11 tranches of bonds, ranging from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche, maturing in 2076, is initially priced about 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields.

The US dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.93; U.S. long-term bond yields steadied at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9%, trading at $5,206 per ounce.

In focus stocks, memory stocks continued to rebound. Micron (MU) rose 3.5%, surpassing $400; SanDisk (SNDK) gained 5%.

Oracle (ORCL) will report earnings after the market close.

Adam Hetts, head of global multi-asset investment at J.P. Morgan, and portfolio manager Oliver Blackbourn said that disruptions in energy supply, rising oil and natural gas prices, and the lack of a clear cooling path are increasing inflation risks and causing greater market volatility. If the conflict persists, it could deepen economic pressures; however, U.S. political considerations might quickly resolve the situation as a “victory” or rapid end, leaving asset outlooks uncertain.

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Market trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound, Micron up 2%, Dow up 101 points, Nasdaq up 0.3%, oil prices retreat 8%

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%, oil prices retreat 7%, Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906

【12:09】Apple reduces reliance on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic files lawsuit demanding the U.S. Department of Defense withdraw blacklisting

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says the war will end soon; gold prices stabilize and rebound

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues further warnings; Trump at a press conference: Iran’s war will end soon but no timeline promised (updating continuously)

【08:26】【AI + NVDA】NVIDIA reportedly plans to launch an open-source AI platform “NemoClaw”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays the release of smart home display devices to wait for new Siri version

$1 or less for March 9 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump says the war is nearly over; oil prices plunge, Dow surges 239 points

U.S. President Trump told foreign media that the war is nearly over, and it’s very complete now. Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are left only in scattered numbers. Their drones are being destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.

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“Look, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. The U.S. can do a lot in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened Iran that any obstruction would have consequences. “They’ve already fired all they can, they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be the end of their country… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end, and you will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, and claims ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “We will not hold back.”

Following the comments, oil prices plummeted, and U.S. stocks turned higher. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2, NYMEX crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially fell 886 points to a low of 46,615; the S&P 500 dropped 1.5% to 6,636; the Nasdaq fell 1.5% to 22,061.

The Dow recovered to close up 239 points at 47,740; the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,795; the Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 22,695.

Brent crude oil initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to counter the spike in oil prices after the Gulf conflict.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the U.S.-Israel war.

After attending the G7 finance ministers’ online meeting in Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market if needed, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, there are no supply issues in Europe or the U.S.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also mentioned that the OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold a meeting of energy ministers to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under government control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, ensuring the country can sustain at least three months under normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; the US dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.877; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields decline to 4.107%.

Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rose 2.5%, to $86.63.

The U.S. military continues to demonstrate its strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are gathered at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict erupted.

The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” U.S. strategic bomber, a strong sign that large-scale air campaigns are imminent or that existing conflicts are escalating rapidly. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large amounts of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting destructive, sustained strikes on enemy infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. stock markets are entering daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz out of caution, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank said it will continue to closely monitor the situation. Currently, there is no substantial damage to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. A solution to ensure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains feasible. Given the fog of war, it reaffirms a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated; see the next page for details.

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Market trends:

【18:20】Oil prices surge over 10%, breaking $100; Dow futures down 492 points, Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; markets open one hour earlier for daylight saving time

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2%, at 24,127

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of a market crash before year-end increases to 35%

【11:15】【700】Tencent reportedly plans to acquire Warner Bros. via Paramount, investing hundreds of millions of dollars

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge past $100, NYMEX crude up 30%, with more Middle Eastern oil producers cutting output

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks; “Black Monday” in Japan and South Korea, both down over 7%; South Korea reportedly considers implementing oil price caps

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern oil capacity will decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in the next two or three years”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil surge intensifies inflation concerns

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil prices up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: small price to pay; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating continuously)

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data; markets open one hour earlier for daylight saving time

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected U.S. employment data caused last Friday’s sharp decline in U.S. stocks, with the Dow dropping as much as 945 points to 47,009; the VIX volatility index surged 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points, the S&P 500 fell 1.33%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.59%.

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The U.S. stock market activity last week, details at: 【U.S. Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln”; Brent surpasses $92; weak employment data causes Dow to fall 453 points; Nasdaq drops 1.6%

Financial Hot Talk

Middle East conflict threatens oil supply—will oil prices break $100? Could this impact the global economy?