Bitcoin in cup formation - does a 6% correction change the bullish sentiment?

After a successful start to 2026, Bitcoin entered a period of fluctuations. The BTC price dropped nearly 6% from its January 14 high, testing levels close to $92,000. Over the past day, the rate fell about 2.6%, which initially looks concerning. However, a more comprehensive analysis—both technical chart analysis and on-chain dynamics—suggests a very different picture. The question is: is this a natural consolidation or the beginning of a deeper reversal?

Cup structure maintains chances for growth – technical analysis

A key element on the daily Bitcoin chart remains the cup with handle formation. This technical pattern is traditionally considered bullish—it indicates a potential price increase. Currently, BTC is testing the “handle”—the last part of the formation.

What makes this particularly promising? The handle in this pattern isn’t just a peak. It forms above a support level created by the neckline, indicating increasing buying strength at higher levels. Such a setup usually enhances the credibility of a future breakout. If the cup formation plays its role, breaking above $95,200 could open the way for a rise to $111,800—about a 13% increase.

Above $95,200, the next obstacle is the $98,800 zone. Overcoming these barriers sequentially would signal that the market is preparing to test the $100,000 boundary and potentially higher levels.

RSI divergence: weakening selling pressure despite price drops

Despite Bitcoin losing value in recent weeks, technical indicators tell a different story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a characteristic phenomenon—bullish divergence.

From November 4 to January 19, Bitcoin made a lower price low. At the same time, RSI—a measure of momentum—indicated a higher low. This divergence between price and indicator suggests waning selling pressure and a potential trend reversal. When the price falls but momentum increases, it indicates sellers are losing steam. The analytical team from B2BINPAY noted that the current price movement indicates market patience rather than exhaustion.

Analysts from the ecosystem emphasized that Bitcoin is gradually exiting a flat trend that has persisted since mid-November 2025. “The chart lacks sharp moves, which usually precede another attempt to break upward,” commented the B2BINPAY team. This divergence will be confirmed if the price stays above $92,000 and begins to rise.

Conflict between long-term holders and whales – on-chain data insights

The price correction is real, but the reasons are more nuanced than deep panic. On-chain data suggest that this is profit-taking by long-term holders rather than a mass sell-off.

The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator for holders who have held BTC for over a year dropped from about 0.60 to 0.58 during the recent move. This is one of the sharper monthly declines—comparable to the pullback from January 5-10. Simultaneously, the net position indicator for long-term investors shows specific numbers: on January 14, long-term holders sold about 25,738 BTC. By January 18, the sales volume increased to around 62,656 BTC—an increase of about 150% in just a few days.

However, there is an interesting market asynchrony here. While long-term players were realizing profits, other market participants—particularly whales (entities holding over 1000 BTC)—were doing something entirely different. Since January 12, the number of whales increased from about 1,273 to 1,290. That’s just 17 more entities, but crucially, this accumulation occurred both before and during the declines. Whales were not selling during weakness—they were still buying.

This is confirmed by another signal: on January 13, BTC ETF inflows reached nearly $900 million—the largest since October 7. On that day, Bitcoin rose nearly 8%. These data suggest that institutional capital flow remains active regardless of individual holder actions.

Key resistance levels: path to $100,000 or return to $88,000?

From a price perspective, Bitcoin is at a crossroads. To stand out as a bullish signal, the cup formation requires the price to return above $95,200—that is, a breakout from the “handle.” Above this zone, $98,800 becomes the next resistance. Breaking through these levels would open the way toward the formation’s projected target of $111,800, about a 13% increase from the neckline.

The B2BINPAY team indicated similar levels in a discussion with BeInCrypto, adding a time context: as long as Bitcoin remains above the $94,000–$95,000 zone, a move to $100,000–$105,000 is feasible within a few weeks, with a subsequent chance to reach $120,000–$140,000 later in 2026 if demand stays strong.

However, the bearish scenario is equally specific. If Bitcoin closes below $92,000, the cup structure will weaken. A sharp drop below $89,200 would invalidate the pattern entirely and open the door to a correction down to $88,000–$90,000, where significant liquidity resides.

Summary: patience or wipeout?

The final message is simple. Bitcoin’s current correction results from profit-taking, not fear. The cup structure remains intact and maintains bullish prospects. Whales are still accumulating. But for a breakout to have a real chance, long-term players need to change tactics—from selling to buying. Until that happens, the growth potential indicated by the pattern remains valid but far from guaranteed. In the crypto market, such uncertainty is the norm—and also an opportunity for those waiting for confirmation signals.