Cui Dongshu: The trend of new energy vehicles was strong in February, and the automotive export market continued to perform well.

On March 14, Cui Dongshu announced that under the national promotion policy, the automotive market continues to grow strongly. The overall trend of the Chinese auto market in 2025 is robust, with significant recovery in the truck and bus sectors. Due to last year’s aggressive policies, this year’s policies have tightened, resulting in negative retail growth for passenger cars in February. However, export growth has kept manufacturer sales relatively strong. February saw a strong performance in new energy vehicles, and the export market for automobiles remains solid. Industry inventory levels fluctuate significantly, and industry pressure remains high. In 2026, the commercial vehicle market shows structural growth driven by equipment renewal subsidies, with high subsidies accelerating electrification in logistics transportation, and overall industry prosperity remains high.

2026 Automotive Market Trends Diverge

In recent years, the differentiation between passenger and commercial vehicles has become pronounced. As the real estate market continues to decline, commercial vehicles weaken while passenger car consumption improves. In 2026, driven by policy factors, passenger car sales are expected to decline by about 10%, remaining relatively sluggish. Electric vehicle subsidies have boosted the truck sector, with pure electric trucks performing significantly better than last year. Subsidies have also driven strong growth in the bus market, including microbuses. The old-for-new policy has had limited impact on passenger cars, especially as the policy’s effects have yet to materialize. Recent progress in industry-wide regulation and self-discipline efforts have led to a noticeable slowdown in the overall car market.

2026 Automotive Market Cooling

In 2025, total vehicle sales reached 34.39 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%. In February 2026, total sales were 1.81 million units, down 15% year-over-year. From January to February 2026, total sales were 4.15 million units, a 9% decline. The truck market remains strong in 2026, while passenger cars and buses perform slightly weaker.

Major automaker groups show significant divergence

Compared to the 2021 chart, some automakers performed strongly in 2022, with industry growth rates diverging sharply. Early 2022’s pandemic put pressure on traditional automakers, especially with the impact of new energy vehicles and COVID-19. State-owned giants showed mixed results, with GAC and Chery performing well—Chery’s commercial and passenger vehicle segments both did well. North China’s FAW, Great Wall, BAIC, and others faced challenges.

In early 2023, new energy vehicles drove market divergence. The three major central enterprises showed overall differentiation, with some state-owned companies falling behind. Companies like BYD performed very well; Chery and Tesla also showed relatively strong performance this year. Second-tier automakers exhibited divergence due to the transition of new and old energy sources and ongoing losses in new energy vehicle segments, leading to a significant split among independent brands and small enterprises.

In 2024, the landscape of automotive groups changed dramatically. BYD’s new models saw price reductions and increased sales, driven by strong demand for passenger cars and overseas markets. Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performed well, while SAIC continued to decline sharply. The growth gap between BYD and Tesla in new energy vehicles widened.

The industry’s manufacturer landscape has undergone a major transformation, with rapid divergence in growth rates. Starting in 2025, private enterprises began replacing state-owned enterprises as industry leaders, with Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall maintaining high growth rates.

Winning in the early months remains a key focus for all companies. Despite a tough and sluggish market, SAIC, Geely, Dongfeng, GAC, and others performed strongly in January and February, with improved growth rates.

In 2025, the automotive manufacturer landscape stabilized somewhat, with a significant rise in independent brands’ market positions. Overall, February sales declined compared to the previous month, as sluggish retail sales affected dealer inventory. Some manufacturers like BYD experienced lower month-over-month sales, while SAIC passenger cars and Tesla showed year-over-year growth. However, some manufacturers still faced significant year-over-year declines in February.

Narrow Passenger Car Sales and Production Trends

In 2025, narrow passenger car sales totaled 29.55 million units, with a 9% increase. In February 2026, sales were 1.52 million units, down 14% year-over-year. From January to February 2026, total sales were 3.49 million units, a 10% decline. Recent years have seen continuous growth in new energy vehicle technology and competitiveness, while new fuel vehicle launches have slowed. Before the 2026 Spring Festival, new energy vehicles were in a correction phase, with dealer confidence waning and growth slowing.

In 2026, independent domestic automakers lead comprehensively. In February, major automakers generally performed weakly, but domestic brands outperformed. Geely led, followed by BYD in second place, with Chery maintaining third. The scale gap among the top three is narrowing. Joint ventures like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen performed relatively poorly.

The main passenger car manufacturers are rapidly diverging, with export-oriented and new energy vehicle-focused companies performing better. The performance gap among independent brands is especially pronounced.

New Energy Passenger Vehicle Production and Sales Trends

In February 2026, sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers totaled 720,000 units, down 13% year-over-year. From January to February 2026, sales were 1.59 million units, down 8%. Early 2026 faced significant pressure from scrappage subsidies, manufacturer price competition, and weak demand before the Spring Festival, leading to subdued market performance.

Independent new energy vehicle companies are leading in production and sales in 2026. The overall performance of major brands in February was weaker, but domestic brands like BYD and Tesla showed relatively strong growth.

Traditional Fuel Passenger Vehicle Production and Sales Trends

In 2023, traditional fuel narrow passenger vehicle sales reached 16.66 million units, roughly unchanged from 2022. In 2024, sales declined by 10% to 14.95 million units. In 2025, sales further dropped by 5% to 14.22 million units. In January-February 2026, sales were 1.90 million units, down 12%, indicating continued weakness in the market.

Bus Manufacturer Production and Sales Trends

In 2023, total bus sales reached 750,000 units, with a 3% increase. In 2024, sales rose 6% to 800,000 units. In 2025, sales increased by 15% to 920,000 units. In January-February 2026, sales were 100,000 units, down 19% year-over-year, with moderate effects from exports and new energy logistics vehicles.

After a strong push at the end of 2025, bus sales in 2026 have slightly declined. Leading manufacturers like SAIC-GM Wuling have maintained relatively strong sales in recent months, mainly driven by logistics light and microbuses. JMC and SAIC Maxus performed well in commercial vehicles, while Dongfeng’s sales in February saw a significant month-over-month decline.

Truck Manufacturer Production and Sales Trends

In 2023, total truck sales reached 3.54 million units, with a 19% increase. In 2024, sales declined slightly to 3.35 million units, down 3%. In 2025, sales rose to 3.72 million units, up 11%. In January-February 2026, sales were 560,000 units, up 6% year-over-year, indicating a strong start to the year.

In 2026, major truck manufacturers show clear differentiation. Leading brands like Wuling and JMC experienced explosive growth in February compared to last year. Wuling, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, JAC, and Jilin’s light trucks performed well in February.

Heavy-duty trucks saw a surge in 2026, with electric heavy trucks performing strongly. Growth was particularly robust for FAW, Shaanxi Auto, and Sinotruk, maintaining a relatively stable industry landscape.