【Alibaba Results】Alibaba to Release Results on Thursday; Brokers Expect Adjusted Net Profit to Fall 42%

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-15T12:32:27+00:00

Alibaba will report its third-quarter earnings on Thursday, with forecasted revenue of 289.8 billion yuan, up 3% year-over-year, but adjusted net profit is expected to decrease by 42%. The core e-commerce business has been impacted by weak macroeconomic consumer demand, leading to increased losses, while cloud and AI businesses are anticipated to be the highlights, with revenue growing by about 33%. Investment in AI may limit overall profitability.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-15 12:32:27

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Alibaba (09988)
Will announce its fiscal third-quarter results on Thursday. According to consensus forecasts from major brokerages, revenue for October to December 2025 is expected to reach 289.8 billion yuan (RMB), up 3% year-over-year. Adjusted net profit is projected at 29.58 billion yuan, down 42%. Huatai Securities indicates that the core e-commerce segment may experience operational deleverage due to weak GMV performance, potentially leading to a decline in net profit (excluding instant retail and delivery services). Additionally, the group’s extra investments in large models and AI applications across various business lines may further constrain overall profitability.

J.P. Morgan expects Alibaba’s core e-commerce growth to slow due to a weak macro consumer environment. It forecasts that the growth rate of core customer management revenue (CMR) will slow from 10% in Q3 to 1%, dragging Taobao/Tmall Group (excluding quick commerce) EBITA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) down by 8%. It also anticipates that local life services will see reduced subsidies, with quick commerce losses decreasing from 35 billion yuan in Q3 to 21 billion yuan. However, due to management’s “market share first” strategy, reaching breakeven will be slower.

J.P. Morgan predicts cloud and AI businesses will be the biggest highlights. It expects cloud intelligence group revenue to accelerate from 34% in Q2 to 37%. As “generative AI” workloads shift from pilot projects to broader deployment, cloud revenue growth is expected to continue accelerating over the next few quarters, demonstrating Alibaba’s strength in capturing China’s AI demand.

Market consensus estimates cloud revenue at 42.36 billion yuan, up 33% year-over-year.

CICC also remains optimistic about cloud and AI businesses, believing they could offset the slowdown in CMR growth amid macro headwinds. It forecasts Alibaba Cloud revenue to grow 36%, driven mainly by internal business penetration and strong external customer demand. However, due to ongoing investments in AI fields (such as Tongyi Qianwen app, Amap, Quark AI glasses), other business segments are expected to see losses expand to 6.8 billion yuan RMB.

Mizuho Securities reports that Alibaba possesses China’s top cloud assets, positioning it well to capitalize on the strong market demand for AI.

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