March 16, 26, Fresh Market

March 16, 2026, Monday.

Today’s premium spread widened again. On Friday, I bought Xinghua Shares, opening at zero and slightly fluctuated at the open. After a quick surge, I decided to take profits, earning a small gain.

Today’s strongest sector was cross-border payments, mainly because Iran expressed interest in paying in RMB to cross the strait. I picked China Oil Capital, Hailian Jin Hui, Cuiwei Shares, COFCO Capital, and China Oil Capital again. They opened flat, mainly looking for a breakout or a rebound opportunity.

However, shortly after, the sector weakened collectively. The agricultural sector strengthened. My first thought about agriculture was chemicals and fertilizers. I checked a few top gainers, and they indeed involved fertilizers. So my picks mainly focused on fertilizers and phosphate chemicals. Of course, other related stocks like methanol could also be considered if they look good, since they generally belong to the same sector.

I selected Hongxing Development, Donghua Technology, Shandong Haihua, and Hubei Yihua. Then the index plunged, and most sectors followed the decline. Although agriculture was among the top gainers, it was more like a small rise within a weak market. I re-examined the agricultural sector and found many stocks involved in aquaculture. Suddenly, I realized that the agricultural sector was actually driven by marine economy.

I then picked some marine economy stocks, but many had already hit the limit-up early on (mainly aquaculture-related). I chose China Merchants South Oil, Hainan Hitech, and Yaxing Anchor Chain. Meanwhile, Baijiu stocks started to rise. I looked at the stronger sectors—only two stood out: Huangtai Liquor and Jinhui Liquor. Huangtai Liquor surged to the limit, while Jinhui Liquor gained about 3-4%. The rest mostly gained 1% or less. I didn’t plan to chase Huangtai Liquor’s limit-up; I was more interested in whether Jinhui Liquor could continue to rise and if other stocks would resonate and follow. If not, Huangtai might become a casualty. Also, I prefer to avoid risk in the Baijiu sector since there weren’t any major news catalysts, and the sector didn’t strengthen afterward. Huangtai Liquor eventually hit the limit and then fell apart.

This kind of market is really hard to trade. Later, Hainan Hitech was preparing to hit the limit-up, but I hesitated. If marine economy logic was valid, it would be fine, but shipping stocks today performed only so-so. (Because the shipping sector, when isolated, is somewhat similar to the Baijiu sector.) Hainan Hitech led the gains, but other stocks showed little movement. If the shipping logic wasn’t about marine economy but was driven by rising shipping prices due to Iran tensions, Hainan Hitech risked becoming a lone wolf. Unfortunately, the stocks didn’t give me time to think; they suddenly surged, and I missed the opportunity.

Later, before noon, chips and semiconductors strengthened. (Actually, at that time, the chip sector wasn’t leading in gains.) The sectors that rose most were mostly retreating. When the index rebounded, chips had the biggest bounce. I had already picked some stocks early on, waiting for the sector to strengthen. When Taiji Industrial was about to surge, the sector still seemed weak, so I didn’t act—another missed chance. But after Taiji Industrial surged, the sector strengthened again, so I picked Shen Technology, China Electric Port, and Dawei Shares to see if the sector would continue to strengthen. However, these stocks didn’t surge. Instead, the marine economy sector’s China Merchants South Oil showed some potential to hit the limit-up, and finally, it did.

This market is really tough. Since the end of the commercial aerospace cycle, I thought that after the main trend ended, it would just rotate, which I’ve experienced before, so it shouldn’t be a big deal. But I didn’t expect the market’s lower limit to always exceed my expectations. I thought February was already difficult, but March turned out to be even more so. Recently, the market has been plunging every day—morning drop, midday drop, Friday’s late-day drop, and today’s morning drop. Will tomorrow open high and then plunge at midday again? When will this end?

Let’s see what tomorrow brings!